UAE and Qatar set for pivotal Gulf Derby in World Cup qualifying

The UAE face perhaps their most critical match of the third stage of FIFA World Cup qualifying tomorrow evening, when they host Qatar at Al Nahyan Stadium in Abu Dhabi.

Paulo Bento’s side are halfway through their campaign, currently third in the group on seven points, with Qatar also on the same tally in fourth but with an inferior goal difference.

Both sides trail second-placed Uzbekistan by three points and group leaders Iran by six.

Given the UAE’s position as the fourth-highest-ranked team in the group - behind Iran, Qatar and Uzbekistan - they are arguably exceeding expectations.

Yet, their campaign could have been brighter if not for a frustrating draw against lowly-ranked North Korea last month or the costly red card to Abdulla Hamad in Uzbekistan. That dismissal, with the score locked at 0-0, was later followed by a late penalty converted by Otabek Shukurov, condemning the UAE to a narrow defeat when they had looked the livelier of the two teams.

Still, setbacks aside, the UAE are firmly in contention to qualify for just their second World Cup finals and first since 1990.

Much of that hope stems from their outstanding 3-1 victory over Qatar in September’s opener, a result head coach Paulo Bento likened to South Korea’s thrilling win over Portugal at the 2022 World Cup - another famous triumph under his stewardship.

That performance remains the high point of the UAE’s campaign, and they will look to recapture that form under the floodlights in Abu Dhabi. A win could propel them into second place, though Uzbekistan are heavily favoured to defeat North Korea, making the Gulf Derby all the more pivotal for both teams.

With four matches still to play after tomorrow night, neither side can afford to slip six points adrift of the automatic qualification spots, especially with just 12 points left on the table.

The UAE will head into this clash with renewed confidence after cruising to a convincing victory over Kyrgyzstan last Thursday. Meanwhile, Qatar kept their hopes alive in dramatic fashion, snatching a last-gasp winner against Uzbekistan to blow the group wide open.

“I think people consider Iran and Qatar as the two favourites to go directly to the World Cup, but nothing was decided after the game between Qatar and Uzbekistan, and nothing is decided after our win over Kyrgyzstan,” Bento said after Thursday’s triumph.

“For us, it was an important three points. We are aware of the rivalry that exists against Qatar.”

Bento has a point: at the start of this campaign, most would have confidently tipped Qatar and Iran to book their tickets to the 2026 World Cup in the United States, Mexico, and Canada.

Yet, under Bento’s leadership, the UAE have transformed into a resilient and disciplined side when operating at their best. Aside from the blip against North Korea, they’ve shown they’re a team that cannot be taken lightly in this competitive group.

As in their stunning opener in September, the UAE will need to stay compact, disciplined and sharp on the counterattack if they’re to secure another vital three points.

But Qatar, buoyed by their dramatic victory over Uzbekistan, will be equally determined to keep their momentum alive as they chase a second consecutive World Cup appearance following their debut as hosts in 2022.

With the stakes sky-high and both sides likely treating this as a must-win game, it could well hinge on a single mistake or a flash of brilliance. From the UAE’s perspective, Harib Abdallah is certainly capable of delivering the latter, as evidenced by his spectacular second goal on Thursday night.

Another moment of magic might just be what it takes for the UAE to defy expectations once more on Tuesday evening in the capital.