COVID-19: India vaccinates at least 8 million daily, but there’s still a long way to go

Around 8.8 million Indians were vaccinated against COVID-19 on Tuesday (August 16, 2020). That’s not the best day in India’s vaccine drive: the highest number of vaccinations was on June 21, 2021, when 9.2 million people received the jabs. The vaccination surge follows a sharp decline in daily new infections that fell to 25,166, the lowest since March 16, India’s health ministry said.

What does the vaccination numbers mean? It means India is vaccinating more people a day than the populations of Bulgaria (6.9 million), Lebanon (6.8 million), Denmark (5.7 million), Ireland (4.9 million) and and 128 other countries, according to Woldometer. Yet, the rate of vaccination is lagging.

Why is that? Vaccinating a country of 1.4 million is not easy. The variables are far too many, including the rugged terrains and access to remote parts of India. There’s also vaccine hesitancy in many areas.

“India has many interregional variations, so public health delivery cannot be uniform across states, regions or marginalised communities,” Dr Sanghamitra Singh, a health scientist and senior manager at the Population Foundation of India, told the Yale School of Public Health.

But for a country that has been successfully running the world biggest vaccination scheme, the Universal Immunisation Programme, which inoculates around 55 million people a year, the COVID-19 vaccination should not have posed problems. Because there’s a working and dependable system in place.

Still, vaccinating 960 million people who are eligible for COVID shots is a formidable mission. India has administered nearly 562.15 million doses, according to the University of Oxford’s Our World in Data project on August 18. Around 437.7 million people received at least one dose, but that covers only 32 per cent of the population. Some 313.25 million people (9 per cent) have received the first dose, and 124.45 million (23 per cent) have received both doses so far.

Why the Indian vaccination drive is lagging

India’s vaccination numbers are excellent, and it’s even more impressive when stacked against other countries. But they pale in significance when you look at the sheer size of the population. In terms of percentage, it hasn’t reached anywhere near the halfway mark.

Considering the logistics, it’s still laudable. But it could have been better. A lot better.

The vaccination campaign started well on January 16 but ran into trouble due to inadequate supply and distribution woes. The second wave of COVID didn’t help either.

The Indian government seemed to have grossly miscalculated the vaccine requirements. In January, the country seemed to have reined in the infections, which could have given the government a false sense of security, resulting in the placement of insufficient orders with the vaccine makers.

There was some shortsightedness too. India depended solely on two vaccines, Covaxin and Covishield, which resulted in a shortfall as Serum Institute of India and Bharat Biotech were unable to keep up with the demand. And the requests for more vaccines came late, reports said. Between January and May 2021, the government bought only around 350 million doses of the two vaccines, which were not enough to inoculate even 20 per cent of India’s population.

“India waited till January to place orders for its vaccines when it could have pre-ordered them much earlier. And it procured such paltry amounts,” the BBC quoted Achal Prabhala, a coordinator with AccessIBSA, which campaigns for access to medicines in India, Brazil and South Africa, as saying.

When there was a shortfall in vaccines, the interval between the two shots was raised from 40 days to 90 days, prompting some medical experts to cast doubts on the efficacy of the move. That was strange since there are two vaccine makers in the country: the Serum Institute of India produces the Oxford University vaccine, AstraZeneca, under the name Covidshield, and Bharat Biotech has indigenously developed a vaccine called Covaxin.

The Serum Institute is the largest vaccine manufacturer globally, churning out around 1.5 billion doses of vaccines a year. That includes all vaccines. This means it can manufacture ample quantities of COVID vaccines if orders are placed early. Late orders from the Indian government impacted the Serum Institute’s export orders from other countries as well.

India needs 11.5 per cent of the world’s vaccines to inoculate its people, which forms 17.75 per cent of the world population, a Bloomberg report said. But then, all of India’s 1.4 billion wouldn’t need the vaccine as only about 960 million would be eligible for the shot. That would require more than 1.8 billion doses.

There has been an increase in daily vaccinations mainly driven by a vast improvement in vaccine supplies. The state governments too have ramped up the inoculation campaigns, but most of them are in urban areas. People in remote areas and villages are still beyond the reach of the jabs. Given the hiccups and hurdles, India seemed to have put the COVID vaccination drive is back on track.

What people say

Thomas Sebastian and his wife registered on the Cowin app and got the first dose of Covishield at a vaccination camp organised by their church in Bengaluru, Karnataka, a south Indian state. More than 400 people were vaccinated at the camp at the St. Thomas Church premises in Jalahalli.

“We had to wait for 84 days for the second dose. We were informed over the phone about the second dose and had the option of taking it at a public health centre.

“We had to wait in queue for 30 minutes, and it was a smooth affair. Since it is Aadhar linked, all the data are on the website could be accessed with the phone number. We got the vaccination certificate within 10 minutes,” Sebastian said.

For Joe Moraes, COVID-19 vaccination was a breeze. He walked into a government health centre in Thiruvananthapuram, the capital of the south Indian state of Kerala, on May 31, got the jab and left. No payment too.

“My nephew, Vivian Mathew, wasn’t so lucky. He had to wait for four hours for the first dose. Anuja [Joe Moraes’ wife] received both doses in Greater Noida, Uttar Pradesh, a north Indian state.

“She got the first dose at a vaccination drive organised by her housing community, and the second dose was administered at a local government hospital. She too didn’t have to pay,” he said.

Vinod George received his first dose of Covaxin at a private hospital in Chennai, Tamil Nadu, in south India. It was very smooth, he said. “All I had to do was book a date, pay and present my Aadhar card, and they took care of everything, including the registration on Cowin portal. I will be taking my second dose at a public health centre next week,” he added.

How India compares with other countries

The UAE is leading the world in vaccination drive, with 83.8 per cent of people receiving at least one jab after 17.51 million doses were administered (Around 73 per cent are fully vaccinated). The UAE is closely followed by Malta (81 per cent), Singapore (79 per cent), Qatar (78 per cent), Portugal, Iceland and Uruguay (76 per cent each).

The US, which has 24 per cent of the world’s vaccinations for just 4.3 per cent of the world population, has administered at least one dose to 59 per cent of the people. Anti-vaxxers and vaccine hesitancy have blighted the country’s vaccination campaigns despite an abundant supply of doses. Yet, the country is on course to cover 75 per cent of its residents in the next three months, Bloomberg reported.

Mainland China has administered at least 1.87 billion doses of COVID vaccines so far. Assuming every person needs two doses, 67.1 per cent of the country’s population should be vaccinated, Reuters said. Around 18 per cent of the world population live in China, and 20 per cent of them have been vaccinated, a Bloomberg report added.

By contrast, African countries are among the least vaccinated. Of the 54 countries, only three have inoculated more than 1 per cent of their populations. At least 20 of the countries have not launched vaccination drives.

More than 40 of the world’s poorest countries don’t yet have public vaccination data. And they represent almost 8 per cent of the global population, Bloomberg said.

How the world is faring

So far, 31.7 per cent of the world population has received at least one dose of vaccine, while 23.7 per cent is fully vaccinated, according to Our World in Data. Stats on August 16 show that 4.76 billion doses have been administered worldwide, and 37.05 million jabs are being given each day.

Given the current vaccination rate, it will take another six months to cover 75 per cent of the world population, the Bloomberg report said.

What remains hidden behind the numbers is the fact that the vaccine distribution has been heavily skewed. Since the wealthiest countries corner most vaccines, they are getting vaccinated more than 25 times faster than those with the lowest incomes.

As of August 12, 40 per cent of the shots administered worldwide have gone to people in 27 affluent nations that represent 11 per cent of the global population. Countries that form the least-wealthy 11 per cent have a mere 1.6 per cent of the jabs given so far, according to an analysis of data collected by the Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker. These numbers reflect the inequitable distribution of vaccines.

COVID-19 may be a leveller, the vaccines clearly are not.