Climate crisis worsens as promises fall short

A month after the 29th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29) held in Baku, Azerbaijan, reached an agreement tripling finance to developing countries to overcome environmental challenges, the focus is shifting to COP30 to gauge the effects of its implementation.

The previous goal of $100 billion annually, was increased to $300 billion annually by 2035. This includes efforts to mobilise $1.3 trillion for the most vulnerable nations to deal with the ravages of climate change.

As promises are made and challenges remain, a look at the distant past shows how the Earth’s climate was in natural balance two centuries ago. Trade between nations and continents, mostly in perishable goods, was through sea and land. The air’s carbon dioxide (CO2) was stable at 280 parts per million (ppm).

However, as the Industrial Revolution spread its tentacles from Europe and North America to the rest of the world, men began transgressing by air, leaving a trail of CO2 emissions into the atmosphere. The industrial-embracing nations burnt coal and other fossil fuels to power their factories.

Additionally, the two World Wars of the 19th century set machines rolling in countries to produce arms and ammunition for soldiers across the globe. These countries became richer and powerful, while others, particularly in Asia and Africa, remained underdeveloped, with little access to industry or technology.

When alarm bells rang

While concerns over climate change have been significant in recent years, the scientific community was first alarmed about it towards the end of the 1950s. It was then previewed as a distant possibility (in the 21st century) and taken lightly. Thus, towards the end of the 1980s, it became a problem that needed immediate attention.

The record heatwaves riling the US, Europe, and other parts indicated that global warming experts had not ascertained its ills properly.

Eventually, at the 1988 Toronto Conference of the Changing Atmosphere, scientists and politicians addressed climate change as a global threat to the Earth’s atmosphere.

Thereafter, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established. In 1992, the Conference in Rio de Janeiro produced the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

The first Conference of Parties (COP) meeting was held in Berlin, Germany in 1995. Later, the Kyoto Protocol, adopted in 1997, and applied in 2005, operationalised the UNFCCC by committing industrialised countries and economies in transition to limit and reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions according to agreed individual targets.

After shilly-shallying, the Paris Agreement of 2015 was a landmark achievement in the global fight against climate change, as 197 countries agreed to limit global warming to below 2°C, compared to the pre-industrial (1850-1900) levels. Most nations pledged to set their targets for GHG cuts and report their progress.

In 2009, at COP15 in Copenhagen, Denmark, all major economies deliberated explicit emission pledges and the accord saw the adoption of a new set of international goals.

The Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) was agreed upon in 2022, wherein governments committed to address the ongoing loss of terrestrial and marine biodiversity.

Financial ambiguity

On the finance front, the developed nations were willing to achieve a collective goal of mobilising $100 billion annually by 2020, lasting through 2025, for climate action in developing countries. However, during the subsequent COP meetings, faltering factors became evident between the rich and the poor nations.

Though, in 2023, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) stated that $100 billion was likely delivered in 2022, many developing nations maintained they were yet to see the money. They claimed receiving most of the capital as loans, not grants, increasing their debt burden.

The feud between rich and emerging nations has been about who should contribute to the new quantified goal of climate finance. The countries questioned the promises made by the wealthy nations, criticising them for defaulting on their word.

Actually, ‘climate finance’ was ill-defined, since the flows largely comprised debt, and barely 15 per cent was concessional. There has to be clarity on the capital offered for ‘mitigation and adaptation’. In climate change literature, the words mean combating climate disasters.

Mitigation involves reducing the heat flow and trapping GHGs into the atmosphere to cut the impact of potent gases from interfering with the Earth’s atmosphere. Adaptation means adjusting to the expected disasters to reduce climate change risks. However, adaptation and its impacts are expensive and can go up to $140 billion to $300 billion annually.

Therefore, advanced countries must be urged to consider the macroeconomic constraints of the evolving nations. They must provide, if not a write-off, an option of a moratorium on the debt.

Arab nations have always been forthright in stating that the $100 billion goal was in context with the Paris Agreement and the unequivocal consensus was related to developed countries. It stressed that wealthy nations provide financial resources, as they were historically responsible for most emissions.

Remedial measures

It’s a fact that much of the acceleration in the atmospheric concentration of GHGs is due to the pursuit of growth through globalisation and the world must acknowledge its adverse impacts.

The remedy is to stop burning fossil fuels — oil, gas, and coal, and replace them with renewable energy sources. If the world keeps burning fossil fuels, the temperatures will continue to rise.

On the other hand, adopting sustainable energy practices can ensure a renewable future. Besides, concerns such as oil shortage and fuel depletion can be solved, and the planet can be saved from future crises. Other factors include better forestry management and adding green spaces, as trees, plants, and soil that store massive amounts of carbon underground or at ground level, are strong allies in the fight against climate change.

The World Meteorological Organisation’s ‘State of the Global Climate’ report affirmed that 2023 broke records for being the hottest year for the concentration of GHGs in the atmosphere and for ocean heat content.

The study by the journal Nature revealed that the year’s summer set a scorching record, marking the hottest season in the northern hemisphere in the past 2,000 years. The temperature was 2.07°C higher than in the pre-industrial period.

The alarming trend was worsened by an El Nino weather pattern in the Pacific, intensifying the impact of human-caused global warming. As climate change exacerbated, temperature records broke again in 2024.

Severe drought and heatwaves swept worldwide and crop failures left millions facing food shortages. In many regions, summers have become much hotter, increasing the risk of high-terrain wildfires and unseasonal droughts. On the other hand, winters are wetter, snowballing into cloudbursts, flash floods, and rising sea levels.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned, “Storms, floods, fires, and droughts are decimating economies. Funds that should be building roads, educating children, and curing the sick are being swallowed by the climate crisis.”

These destructive scenarios, often referred to as ‘silent killers’, are a wake-up call for all to be aware of and prepare for a new climate reality.

Though all is not lost, the words of Pope Francis ring true, “The time for seeking global solutions is running out. We can find suitable solutions only if we act together and in agreement.”

(The above content is an introduction to this author’s recently published book Climate Change Enigma: A Delicate Balance)

Dr Abdullah Belhaif Al Nuaimi is Chairman of the Advisory Council of the Emirate of Sharjah