How important is Liverpool’s Christmas lead?

Christmas is a time of tradition, celebration and reflection - and for Liverpool, it’s also a time to sit atop the Premier League table. Following a scintillating 6-3 victory over Tottenham Hotspur, the Reds have secured a four-point cushion over second-placed Chelsea, with a game in hand to boot.

The question now is how significant is Liverpool’s place at the summit of the Premier League standings? History offers mixed answers, but one thing is certain - being top at Christmas provides a platform, albeit not a guarantee, for title success.

This is not uncharted ground for Liverpool. The club has been the Christmas leader in the Premier League era on seven occasions, yet their record in converting this into title triumphs is a poor one. Only once, in the dominant 2019-20 campaign, did they manage to hold onto their position and secure the league crown.

The story is even more telling when viewed across the club’s history. In English football’s top flight, Liverpool have been top on Christmas Day 21 times, winning the title on 11 of those occasions. While this is an impressive tally, it also highlights a propensity for near-misses. Infamous collapses in 2008-09, 2013-14, and 2018-19 remain etched in the memories of Liverpool fans.

Slot, however, is determined to avoid repeating history.

“You have to keep on going, keep on going. Every three days you have to be on top of your game,” he said. “That’s why it is so hard to win it.”

Overall history

In the Premier League era, the team leading the table on December 25 has gone on to win the title in 16 out of 32 seasons. More recently, 10 of the last 15 Christmas leaders have lifted the trophy come May. However, Liverpool’s track record stands in stark contrast to the likes of Manchester City and Chelsea, who have never failed to convert a Christmas lead into a title.

While Manchester City are well off the pace right now, they can’t be totally discounted. Known for their ability to chase down deficits, Pep Guardiola’s side has overturned significant gaps to win the title, including coming from eighth at Christmas in 2020-21. Their relentless consistency makes them the “pantomime villains” of Liverpool’s recent campaigns, often dashing the Reds’ hopes in neck-and-neck title races.

Liverpool’s past struggles serve as cautionary tales. The 2008-09 season saw them lose just two games all season but still finish behind Manchester United. The collapse of 2013-14 is perhaps more infamous, marked by Steven Gerrard’s costly slip against Chelsea and a 3-3 draw at Crystal Palace after leading 3-0. Even the 2018-19 season, where Liverpool amassed 97 points, ended in heartbreak as City edged them by a single point.

Slot and his squad will undoubtedly be aware of these precedents, but they can also draw inspiration from their successful 2019-20 campaign.

The significance of now

Being top at Christmas is more than just a psychological boost; it’s a statement of intent. For Slot, it is evidence of the team’s quality and a platform for sustained success. “It tells you we are a very good team,” he said, adding that maintaining consistency will be the key.

Liverpool’s lead is a precarious one. Chelsea, despite dropping points in a 0-0 draw against Everton, remain a formidable opponent. Manchester City’s ability to mount late-season surges makes them a potential danger, while Arsenal’s near-miss last season - spending 248 days at the top only to lose out to City - serves as a warning against complacency.

With half the season still to play, Liverpool’s fate is far from sealed. Slot’s emphasis on the “every three days” grind sums up the reality of competing for the Premier League title. Injuries, form, and fixture congestion will all play a role in determining whether Liverpool can end the season as champions.