By 2025, game-changing solid-state batteries may disrupt lithium-ion batteries

The 1987 film Batteries Not Included follows tenants who enlist alien robots to save their building. In the sci-fi flick, aliens settle in the building's shed, forming a bond with the tenants.

Fast forward to 2024: A real-life, power-saving battery that lasts longer, charges faster, and cuts the risk of fire—sounds too good to be true, right?

Solid-state batteries are poised to deliver exactly that. With cutting-edge designs swapping liquid electrolytes for solid ones, they promise to redefine how we power electric vehicles, smartphones, air taxis, and more.

It doesn’t stop there.

While industry giants like CATL, BYD and QuantumScape are racing to commercialise this technology, questions loom: Can they overcome the high production costs?

Will they scale in time? Experts suggest that by 2025, the game-changing potential of solid-state batteries may finally hit the market.

The world is watching. Could this be the power source of tomorrow, or will its rollout face insurmountable hurdles?

Enter solid-state batteries

While we're quite not there yet, the shift to SSBs, that is, replacing Li-ion's liquid electrolyte with a solid material, offers a number of advantages:

The science behind the scenes

A number of economic and technical factors are at play: battery costs have gone down dramatically. In the last 15 years, given the speed of developments in the battery space, a staggering 90 per cent drop in the cost of battery packs has already occurred, bringing a real-life benefits for planet Earth, according to the US Department of Energy (DOE).

There's a fierce race underway in the labs and factories. Industry giants and top universities are pouring millions into supercharging battery technology. The trend, given the huge potential payoffs, seems unstoppable.

SSBs represent a radical leap in battery technology promises longer range, faster charging, and a cleaner energy future.

With a dramatic leap in energy density, at least double the juice from today's best lithium-ion batteries, the rise of SSBs could power the future, where cars drive longer and charge faster.

Fortune Business Insights estimates that the global EV battery market size was valued at $59.06 billion in 2023; projected to grow from $67.78 billion in 2024 before spiking to $111.20 billion by 2032 – an annual growth of 6.4 per cent during the forecast period.

Patents

Every new breakthrough edges us closer to a seismic shift. The next-generation solid state batteries (SSBs) represents a major breakthrough. It's a revolution that is just getting started.

We’re not looking at a single leap, but a cascade of advances. Today, a huge effort is being poured into SSB development. The patent landscape for SSBs is getting bumped up.

A number of companies are leading the way. Asian companies currently lead in SSB patents: LG, Samsung and Toyota, hold more than 3,400 patents between them – about two-thirds of the world’s SSB patents. the next-gen batteries like SSBs could significantly advance the global EV market and the car-to-grid technology, where EVs not used for transport help stabilise the power grid.

Global competition

Rapid progress is being made on next-gen batteries, with competing entities like CATL, BYD, CALB and universities like Stanford and Harvard, are going all in SSB development.

Amid this race, breakthroughs have been reported.

For example, Harvard’s John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences (SEAS) has reported in January a solid-state breakthrough: a battery that can be charged and discharged at least 6,000 times — more than any other pouch battery cell, as per Electrek.

SSB technology continues to undergo refinement by a diverse industrial groups and universities looking at a huge payoff. The minimum target: doubling of energy densities of existing batteries.

Leaders

CATL, the world’s largest battery manufacturer, is spearheading efforts in SSB development. In 2023, the company was testing 20 amp-hour samples of sulfide-based solid-state batteries.

These samples represent the first step toward mass production, with the company targeting small-scale production by 2026.

If successful, these batteries will allow EVs to charge quicker, last longer, and become more efficient overall.

Solid-state battery advantages

The advantages of solid-state batteries are not only theoretical. CATL has already demonstrated breakthroughs with lithium-iron phosphate (LFP) and sodium-ion batteries that have been mass-produced and deployed in vehicles, validating their claims.

However, challenges remain.

Mass-producing solid-state batteries while ensuring safety and performance under real-world conditions poses a major challenge for manufacturers.

Progress in solid-state batteries

The rapid progress in this field is setting the stage for the next generation of electric cars, making them more attractive than ever to consumers.

As electric vehicles become faster, more efficient, and accessible, the internal combustion engine’s dominance in the automotive industry is increasingly under threat.

By 2027, a new battery technology twice better than the popular lithium-ion batteries current found in most EVs and mobile devices, could come out of factories – significantly helping save the planet.

One of these advances might just trigger a “Kodak moment” or a “Nokia collapse” in the energy market. When it happens, the disruption will be massive, reshaping the landscape in an unprecedented way.

SSB developers

Industry estimates show SSBs could go into cars from as early as 2025, but with commercial-scale application from 2027.

Panasonic is actively developing its own SSB technology. However, unlike some of its competitors, Panasonic’s initial focus is not on EVs.

Instead, the company aims to introduce solid-state batteries for drones and industrial robots – by around 2029. Panasonic, a major battery supplier for Tesla, has made progress in addressing common issues such as the limited usage life of solid-state batteries.

Their approach involves enhancing the battery’s durability, which is crucial for high-cycle applications.

Meanwhile, Chinese, Japanese, Korean and European battery makers are all actively involved in the development of solid-state batteries, with varying commercialisation timelines, but mostly set for later this decade.

Here’s what we know so far on latest SSB developments:

CATL: The largest EV battery manufacturer globally, CATL is targeting the small-scale production of its solid-state batteries by 2027. They have been investing in R&D for over a decade and aim to achieve significant advancements in energy density, potentially up to 500 Wh/kg. However, challenges related to manufacturing scalability and cost remain as hurdles for mass production​, as per electrive.com

QuantumScape: Based in the US, QuantumScape is a key player in SSB development. They have made significant strides in durability testing and have developed batteries that can withstand over 6,000 charge cycles. Their partnership with Volkswagen is aimed at integrating these batteries into electric vehicles.

BYD: As part of its solid-state battery initiative, BYD is collaborating within the China All-Solid-State Battery Collaborative Innovation Platform (CASIP). This consortium includes major Chinese battery players like CATL, CALB, and BYD’s subsidiary, FinDreams. The focus is on overcoming technical barriers and setting up a supply chain, with commercial-scale production likely to begin around 2030​, according to Carscoops.

CALB: China Aviation Lithium Battery (CALB), another key member of the CASIP, is also gearing up for solid-state battery development. Like its peers, CALB is expected to advance towards commercialisation within the next decade, driven by collaborative research efforts and technological improvements as part of China’s broader push to lead in this new battery technology​, according to Carscoops.

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Toyota: Toyota has heavily invested in solid-state battery research. Their focus is on improving energy density and enhancing safety. Toyota aims to bring these batteries to market in their next generation of electric vehicles by the late 2020s.

Harvard University: Harvard has been pioneering in the academic research of solid-state battery technology. They have developed innovative designs that promise enhanced cycle life and faster charging capabilities, positioning them as leaders in the research domain alongside industrial players, according to the university.

Stanford University: Several research groups at Stanford are actively exploring innovations in solid-state battery research, focusing on enhancing the performance and scalability of solid-state electrolytes and lithium-metal anodes. The Dauskardt Group at Stanford is working on scalable designs for solid-state batteries, aiming to replace traditional liquid electrolytes with solid materials to boost energy density. 

StorageX: This is a collaboration between Stanford and industrial partners. Researchers like Yi Cui, a prominent figure in the field of battery science at Stanford, are deeply involved in projects aimed at developing new solid electrolytes and exploring their fundamental properties​.  

Common battery types and their energy density:

There are several different types of rechargeable batteries with a variety of energy densities reflective of their internal chemistry.

Energy density vs power density: Energy density is often confused with power density, so it is important to understand the distinction between the two. Power density is the measure of how quickly the energy can be delivered, rather than how much stored energy is available.

Takeaways

The race is on to overcoming the challenges of manufacturing and scaling the solid-state battery technology​.

These organisations are at the forefront due to their investments in R&D and partnerships focusing on Overall, the industry anticipates that SSBs will start seeing commercialisation around 2027, with broader industrial-scale production likely in the early 2030s.