What the future holds for Gaza and Hamas, post-Sinwar

The Oct. 16 killing of Hamas leader Yehya Al Sinwar raises plenty of questions about what the future holds both for Hamas and the entire Gaza Strip. The architect of the Aqsa Flood Operation is dead.

Hamas is a shadow of its former self. Gaza is in rubble, so will Benjamin Netanyahu now accept a ceasefire, as his relationship with the outgoing Biden Administration passes through a difficult moment?

There is rising tension within the Israeli government, between the premier and his defence minister Yoav Gallant, who is accused of reaching out to the White House. With that in mind, and the Biden White House left with less than three months to live, it is doubtful that it can impose anything on Netanyahu. And it is equally doubtful that Biden will even want to stop the Gaza War, although he would certainly like to tone it down.

Dead Man Walking

Until the killing of Sinwar, it was commonly argued that Netanyahu cannot afford to end the war because the minute he does, Israeli lawmakers will likely eject him from office and bring him to trial, not for corruption this time, but for allowing the Aqsa Flood Operation to happen. Netanyahu was a dead man walking but the back-to-back assassinations of Ismail Haniyeh, Hassan Nasrallah, and now Yehya Sinwar might just have just indefinitely prolonged his career.

No previous premier could boast of eliminating so many of Israel’s frontline enemies in less than one year, except perhaps, for Ariel Sharon. That was twenty years ago, when Sharon killed Hamas founder Ahmad Yassin in March 2004, followed by his successor Abdul-Aziz Al Rantisi in April. Netanyahu’s hit list will greatly boost his popularity even among the most vocal of his critics at home.

That said, however, one must ask whether Sinwar’s death is actually Netanyahu’s end-game? Wars are often considered “done” with the death of the victor’s perceived Number One Enemy. Although it would drag on for an extra few months, World War II was all but over with the April 1945 suicide of Adolf Hitler and the 1982 Israeli invasion of Beirut ended with Yasser Arafat’s departure from Lebanon. Does that mean that the Gaza War is over now that Yehya Sinwar is dead?

His death is one thing, but the death of Hamas as an organisation and ideology is another. It’s not as easy as it may seem and uprooting what remains of grass roots Hamas is nearly impossible. They are native Palestinians living in their ancestral homes, unlike Arafat and his comrades who were visitors in Lebanon.

Daesh and splinter militias

The group may splinter into numerous militias, which could lead to something that would probably be far worse than Hamas. We must never forget that back in 2015, a handful of Hamas defectors tried to set up an Daesh branch in Gaza called the Omar Hadid Brigades. They knew everything about the tunnels, the weapon caches, and many of Hamas’ inner secrets, parting ways with the mother organisation over what they said was Hamas’ “soft” stance on Israel.

Hamas swiftly had them arrested but the Daesh ideology prevails in Gaza, thriving on poverty, hunger, and the sense of humiliation. The Hamas we knew was willing, at various junctures of its history, to reach a long-term truce with Israel. That, however, was pre-Netanyahu and if something more radical emerges to replace it, they are less likely to opt for such a truce.

Possible successors

Much of this rests on who will replace Yehya Sinwar at the party’s helm, and for how long? Israel is not allowing its adversaries a moment’s respite, swiftly eliminating Nasrallah and his two successors within mere days. In 2004 it killed Ahmad Yassin and Abdul-Aziz Al Rantisi within a one month period. This time, Sinwar served as Hamas leader for less than three months.

Sinwar’s brother Mohammad is a candidate, given his central role in planning the 7 October attack and his positioning as military commander of the Qassam Brigades in Gaza. Another candidate is Izz al-Din Haddad (Abu Suhayb), commander of military operations in Gaza and member of Hamas’ Military Council.

These men are battle-hardened, fuelled by vengeance, and possess nothing left to lose. Most of their family members were killed by Israel and they know that Netanyahu will try and kill them too, regardless if they replace Sinwar or not. So they might as well maximise their offensive while they can, before they are eliminated.

If the group opts for a civilian leader, however, then the names of Khaled Meshaal (Abu Al Walid) and Khalil Hayya are making the rounds, along with Mohammad Ismail Darwish (Abu Omar), head of Hamas’ Shura Council. Meshaal is the Doha-based former head of Hamas’ political bureau and Hayya was Sinwar’s trusted deputy. Both are extremely well connected, like their colleague Ismail Haniyeh, but they are more tactical and pragmatic than Izz al-Din Hadad or Sinwar.

In other words, they would be willing to settle for a deal with maximal face-saving for Hamas. Meshaal has recently quoted saying that he believes Hamas has already won the war, a line that will come into handy if he decides to opt for a ceasefire.

— Sami Moubayed is a historian and former Carnegie scholar. He is also author of the best-seller Under the Black Flag: At the frontier of the New Jihad.