Trump's blueprint to reshape Middle East alliances
Concerns mount as the incoming US administration makes several hardline appointments
When Palestinians and other Arabs expected much from Biden’s administration, only to hear him say “I and a Zionist” and to act like one, they were disappointed. They don’t know still what to make of the incoming administration.
President-elect Donald Trump has already made clear where he stands — his America First rallying slogan is expected to impact his Middle East policy, also.
It may not be good, by the look of things. And if you think the policies Trump pursued in his first term in office between 2017 and 2021 were bad, wait for what is to come, which is ‘likely’ to be support for ambitions of Israel’s far-right, ultranationalist government now in power.
And that support is already made by Trump’s picks of Mike Huckabee for US ambassador to Israel, Steven Witkoff for Middle East “peace envoy” and Marco Rubio for secretary of state. All three have established long-standing reputations as staunch and unrelenting supporters of the Zionist state, aligning closely with its most hardline policies.
However, these appointments have raised significant concern among critics both in the media and on Capitol Hill, who argue that these individuals lack the qualifications, expertise, and diplomatic acumen necessary for the critical roles they have been assigned. Their records and perceived biases have only heightened fears that the incoming administration may lean toward reinforcing Israel’s far-right ambitions, further polarising an already volatile region.
“Plan” for “lasting peace”
Yet, the president-elect has repeatedly said during his presidential campaign that he had a “plan” to bring “lasting peace” to the Middle East.
The Middle East today, after the Gaza war convulsed its geopolitics and soured the mood of its street, is not the same Middle East that Trump’s administration dealt with eight years ago, for the region’s alliances and strategic relations have since been redefined.
The question here is whether the US, with its now diminished leverage as a big power, will be able to effect a shift in these transformations responsive to its interests — and by definition Israel’s.
Recalibration of global alliances
It’s doubtful that Washington can accomplish such a feat, given that many countries in the region no longer see themselves as necessarily bound to an American-led international order, countries that have essentially gone from being American-allied states to what Americans love to call “swing states” that opt to “vote their conscience”.
Once staunch allies of the United States, these nations have transitioned into what Americans might term “swing states,” making independent choices aligned with their own national interests rather than adhering to Washington’s directives. This shift underscores a broader recalibration of global alliances, with countries in the region prioritising pragmatic policies.
And, come now, what “plan” for what “lasting peace” is the incoming administration seriously contemplating? Establishing independent Palestine
In a public speech he delivered in September, Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman of Saudi Arabia, a country whose influence in the region is considered paramount, plainly made clear the Arab position. He said: “The kingdom will not cease its tireless efforts to establish an independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital, and we affirm that the kingdom will not establish diplomatic relations with Israel without one”.
Meanwhile, not only has the Israeli government — which has accelerated its settlement-building in the West Bank, an occupied territory it intends to keep indefinitely — vociferously opposed the establishment of even anything resembling an independent Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza, a mere 21 per cent of historic Palestine, but ultranationalist Israeli politicians imbued with a messianic Greater Israel drive, like finance minister Itimar Ben Gvir and finance minister Bezalel Smotrich have publicly called for the expulsion of Palestinians from Gaza and claiming the territory for Israeli settlement.
Israel’s far-right agenda
Last week, Smotrich, smug in his belief that the incoming administration may go along with Israel’s ambitions in the occupied Palestinian territories, said that by next year “sovereignty” over the entire West Bank “will assuredly be realised”.
Such statements signal an alarming escalation in rhetoric and strategy, reflecting a determination to solidify control over land claimed by Palestinians for a future state.
Many wonder if a day will ever come when the United States of America will adopt a stance toward the Palestinian people rooted in the idea that fair play, moral values and human decency are at times worth the effort. As for me, I remain deeply sceptical, for the patterns of the past suggest that meaningful change may likely emerge anytime soon.
— Fawaz Turki is a noted academic, journalist and author based in Washington DC. He is the author of The Disinherited: Journal of a Palestinian Exile