Thailand’s political transition and new leadership
Southeast Asian country's political future and the balance of power continue to evolve
Thailand, which has experienced a series of military takeovers, popular agitations, and political turbulence for nearly two decades, witnessed a rather unusual and orchestrated changeover of governments last week. Interestingly, the Thai voters, who have been advocating for a democratic system, were largely uninvolved in this transition.
The May 2023 elections in Thailand brought forth the Move Forward Party (MFP), a progressive and innovative force that ignited hope and optimism among the public. Many believed that the era of government formations and military rule had come to an end.
The MFP’s unexpected victory in the May 2023 election unsettled Thailand’s conservative establishment, prompting them to seek reconciliation with their former rival, ex-Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, and his political network.
Following the exclusion of the MFP, Srettha Thavisin, a billionaire real estate tycoon supported by the Pheu Thai Party (PTP) became prime minister last year. However, his tenure was recently cut short when a court found him guilty of violating ethical standards by appointing an individual previously convicted of attempted bribery to the cabinet.
Consequently, the court declared Srettha, widely seen as a figurehead closely aligned with Thaksin Shinawatra, ineligible for the post. Thavisin accepted the court’s decision without contest, paving the way for Paetongtarn Shinawatra, 37, the youngest daughter of Thaksin Shinawatra, to be sworn in as the new prime minister.
An overview of events
This sequence of events can be traced back to Thaksin Shinawatra’s removal from power in 2006. Coinciding with his daughter’s rise to power, he has received a royal pardon.
In the intervening years, various government configurations were formed, yet whenever elections were held, the people consistently returned Thaksin’s Pheu Thai Party (PTP) to power.
In 2011, Thaksin’s sister Yingluck Shinawatra led the PTP to a landslide election victory. However, protests, arguably encouraged by opponents, ensued when she proposed a political amnesty that could have allowed Thaksin to avoid imprisonment.
As the protests escalated, they led to another coup in 2014, which installed a military government under General Prayuth Chan-ocha. General Prayuth later adopted a civilian role after being named prime minister by the legislature. This government remained in power until 2019.
Thavisin, who has long been associated with the Thaksin family, was only appointed prime minister last year after the military and royalist members of the Senate blocked the majority MFP leader, Pita Limjaroenrat, from assuming the position.
With the PTP securing the second-largest share of seats and the military-backed parties performing below expectations, military aligned with Thaksin’s party, which also seemed willing to compromise. Thavisin government thus emerged as a coalition between the military-backed parties and their historic rival, the PTP.
Return to Bangkok
In August 2023, coinciding with the formation of the Thavisin government, Thaksin returned to Bangkok on a private jet after more than 15 years in self-imposed exile.
Upon his arrival, he was arrested, taken to court, and sentenced to an eight-year prison term. However, he was swiftly transferred to the Police General Hospital. Thaksin was subsequently granted parole in February 2024 and has since received a royal pardon.
Thaksin, now aligning with the establishment, may face challenges in retaining support going forward. This period in Thailand’s political history presents an opportunity for the country to navigate its future with a focus on stability and governance.
The establishment has an opportunity to draw from historical insights and focus on ensuring a prosperous future for Thailand.
Sajjad Ashraf served as an adjunct professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore from 2009 to 2017. He was a member of Pakistan Foreign Service from 1973 to 2008 and served as an ambassador to several countries.