Paris Agreement promised to save the world: Did it deliver?

“Without goals, and plans to reach them, you are like a ship that has set sail with no destination,” stated American psychologist, Fitzhugh Dodson.

However, the 21st Conference of the Parties (COP21) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was a landmark event, which not only chalked out a master plan in the global effort to combat climate change, but also provisioned that the objectives were implemented.

Held in France in December 2015, COP21 adopted the Paris Agreement, a legally binding international treaty. It brought together 196 countries committing to limiting global warming to 1.5-2°C compared to pre-industrial levels, which aligns with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recommendations.

Countries agreed to reduce their emissions by a specific percentage based on a base year. They saw reasons to work in unison, adapt to climate change impacts, strengthen commitments over time, and provide financing to developing nations.

Having common yet differentiated responsibilities, they decided to review the contributions to reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions every five years.

The journey and the milestones

The road to Paris was fraught with lessons from previous COPs, each setting the stage for the breakthroughs.

The first COP held in 1995 in Germany, established the Berlin Mandate, which recognised the need for developed countries to lead in reducing GHGs. This set the tone for future negotiations.

The Kyoto Protocol adopted in 1997 in Japan, committed developed countries to legally binding emission reduction targets. While the protocol was a significant step forward, its limited scope and the eventual withdrawal of key countries highlighted the need for a more inclusive and flexible approach.

Though not legally binding, the Copenhagen Accord of 2009 in Denmark introduced the concept of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), where countries set their emission reduction targets.

Introduced in South Africa, the 2011 Durban Platform for Enhanced Action launched negotiations for a new, comprehensive climate agreement to be adopted by 2015 and implemented in 2020.

Distinctive facets

The directives and inductive approach were instrumental in driving the momentum towards COP21. Several factors distinguished it from previous COPs. For the first time, a universal agreement was reached in the fight against climate change.

The Paris Agreement’s NDCs allowed countries to:

• Tailor their commitments based on national resources, promoting wider involvement and ownership.

• Achieved unprecedented global consensus, with developed and developing countries committing to climate action — a significant departure from earlier conventions when differences between groups hindered advancement.

• Established a long-term net-zero emissions goal by the second half of the century, which was a clear direction for future climate policies and investments.

• A strong transparency framework was ushered in to track progress and ensure accountability.

• Emphasised the principles of financial, technology transfer, and capacity-building support for developing countries, recognising their challenges and the need for adjustments.

• To a significant extent, developing countries defended the Convention and stopped developed countries from rewriting the Convention.

• Sustainable growth and poverty eradication — the objectives of developing countries were referred to as the context of actions.

• Developed countries were spotlighted to take the lead in mitigation.

Dismal performance

The COP21 Presidency, generally viewed as fair despite having a difficult role, was marred by the incident where the US wanted ‘shall’ to be replaced with ‘should’ in a provision that required developed countries to reduce their emissions. The request was accommodated by terming it a ‘technical correction’.

Some Like-minded Developing Countries (LMDC) viewed this with dismay, but the Paris Agreement was adopted with the change.

Emerging economies continue to argue that given the historical emissions of developed countries, they must bear the responsibility of taking the lead in this direction.

Encouraging teamwork

An agenda was set that beyond making financial commitments, industrialised countries must facilitate technology transfers, and adapt to a low-carbon economy.

The Agreement stipulated that $100 billion (from public and private sources) must be mobilised yearly to fund projects and help developing countries implement their GHG reductions. However, these countries are now hoping for at least $600 billion in grants as a new collective quantified goal (NCQG) at the ongoing COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan.

It’s time to ensure nations are not absolved from their financial commitments. Developing nations must pile pressure on them and remain firm and united in the negotiations and processes through shared responsibilities before it is too late.

As US writer, Diana Scharf Hunt remarked, “Goals are dreams with deadlines.”

(Next week, the author will discuss COP29 Baku and the deferred financial climate budget)

Dr Abdullah Belhaif Al Nuaimi is Chairman of the Advisory Council of the Emirate of Sharjah