Modi’s US visit highlights strategic ties amid global uncertainty

India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, has concluded his US visit. A memorable quote from this visit, from his address to the United Nations General Assembly, is “Reform is the key to relevance.”

This applies not only to the reform of the UN itself, particularly its Security Council, where India has been vying for a permanent seat, but to a whole host of issues and verticals. Including India’s relations with the United States. And its own economy as also Modi’s third term itself.

Coming so close to the US elections in November and so soon after his trips to Russia, Poland, and Ukraine, this visit was considered quite significant. Not only did Modi participate in the sixth annual Quad Summit in Wilmington, Delaware, but he also held a key bilateral meeting with President Joe Biden. Modi also met several other heads of states or their representatives from around the world.

India’s PM addressed a huge Non-Resident Indian (NRI) audience at the Nassau Coliseum in Uniondale on 22 September. There were other high-level meetings with US business, industry, and civil society leaders.

A definite shift

Quad, a non-military alliance of Australia, India, Japan, and the US, was also in focus. Its stated commitment is to work, among other things, as “a force for global good and to support an open, free, and inclusive Indo-Pacific that is prosperous and resilient.” But it would be naive to suppose that it has no strategic importance; indeed one noticed a definite shift in that direction.

Clearly, the group is meant to counterbalance China in the Indo-Pacific sphere of influence. The MEA statement indicated “a substantive engagement between the prime minister and President Biden,” with opportunities “to review the comprehensive global strategic partnership between India and the United States.” Modi’s presence in this year’s Quad Summit takes on added purpose and meaning because India will be the host of next year’s meeting in 2025.

On 23 September, Modi addressed the United Nations General Assembly at the Summit of the Future. “Multilateral Solutions for a Better Tomorrow” is the theme of the summit. Modi, wisely, did not meet ex-president and current president-hopeful, Donald Trump as that would have been construed as interference with America’s domestic politics.

Notwithstanding all the above, India and the US, the largest and biggest democracies in the world, continue their diplomatic jousting and scrimmage, not only over India’s continuing ties with Russia, but the issue of Khalistani separatists.

At the same time, the US and India have a huge convergence of interests and values, as well as a robust trade, with the US being India’s largest or second-largest partner. Both countries have huge and long-standing defence ties, with several ongoing joint military exercises.

“Non-aligned” position

Where this crucial relationship is headed, however, is not entirely clear. Many in the US establishment are disappointed with India’s continued closeness to Russia, its “non-aligned” position on Ukraine, and what they believe is India’s insistence on multilateralism rather than joining the Western side of Cold War 2.0.

In an ever more complex world, large democracies like India and the US are hardly homogenous, especially given the fractured politics that plague both countries.

Given the above, what should we expect from the visit? Modi, as usual, aced it diplomatically, with the backing of EAM Jaishankar. But I would hazard to say that it will be business as usual rather than result in any spectacular or groundbreaking success — at least until we know who will be the next occupant of the White House.