Israel’s high-stakes calculus against Iran
Amid Tel Aviv’s claims and Tehran’s subtle denials, what lies ahead for the Middle East
Early on Saturday, Israel struck Iranian territory for the second time this year, following an earlier strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus on 1 April 2024.
The last time the Iranian capital was targeted was during the Iran-Iraq War of the mid-1980s, but Saturday’s attack was nowhere as fatal as those of Saddam Hussein, targeting none of Iran’s refineries or power stations.
According to Iranian state-run media, the Israeli attack caused “limited damage,” targeting military sites in Tehran, Ilam, and Khuzestan. Two soldiers were killed, Iranians announced.
The much anticipated strike was in response to Iran’s launch of 200 ballistic missiles against Israel on 1 October, which in turn, was in retaliation for the July assassination of Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, followed by the Sept. 27 assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.
Israel’s exaggeration
The world stands divided on what comes next, with many fearing a full-fledge war. The outgoing Biden administration says the latest attack puts an end to the exchange of fire between the two countries.
Israel is exaggerating success of the operation to justify — perhaps — no future strikes against Iran. It’s an indirect way of saying “mission accomplished” and wouldn’t want to push too far with this war until figuring out who the next US president will be.
If it’s going to be Kamala Harris at the White House, then she will certainly want to end this war before returning to the nuclear talks with Iran. This has been a steady commitment by the Democrats, packaged as the only way forward to contain Iran’s ambitions.
Benjamin Netanyahu would be doing her a huge favour if he stops escalation at this point and yet, if Donald Trump wins the election, the outcome could be different. Netanyahu can afford to wait, having already bulldozed Gaza to the ground and more or less eliminated the ever-present threat coming from Hamas.
While he waits he will carry out with his war on Hezbollah, which presently is more of a priority for the Israeli premier. Before the string of assassinations by Israel, Netanyahu feared that he would be put on trial — and probably jailed — the minute the Gaza War came to an end.
That is now history, as he banks on being the man to eliminate Haniyeh, Nasrallah, and Sinwar, all in a matter of months.
Iran’s downplaying
As Israeli media trumpets success of Saturday’s operation, Iranian state run media is doing the exact same opposite: downplaying the attack so as not to fuel public anger and corner itself into a position where it would have to respond with another wave of missiles.
Although many in the West are seemingly convinced that Iran was directly involved in planning and executing the Al Aqsa Flood Operation of 7 October 2023, a more nuanced approach might show that it was actually taken by surprise. At best, it might have been informed of Hamas’ motives but was likely not part of the Al Aqsa Flood Operation Room.
It might be logical to assume that Iran was not too happy about 7 October, coming at heals of renewed talks with the Americans. Having positioned itself at the helm of the anti-Israeli axis, however, it could not but support and embrace the Al Aqsa Flood.
Geopolitical gambit of Tehran
The Houthis of Yemen are presently a far more formidable force than Hamas, explaining why over the past three years, the Iranians have put their full weight behind the Yemeni group, often at the expense of Hamas but never at the expense of Hezbollah.
Like Hamas, however, the Houthis are not an Iranian creation and if they are defeated, then Iran will move on and find another ally, or proxy. It still has many waiting in-line, like the Sadrists of Iraq, the Hashd Al Shaabi, and Kata’ib Hezbollah.
What matters to Iran at present is keep Hezbollah alive, at any cost. Recent weeks have seen a steady increase in Hezbollah attacks on Israel, which means that the Lebanese group has been reinforced and probably rearmed by the Iranians since the “pager incident” on 17 September 2024.
That will require plenty of military and financial investment, which is not as easy as it had been in the 1980s and 1990s. The Iranian economy is nowhere as strong as it used to be, and renewed sanctions under Trump only made its regional projects more difficult and costly.
The last thing it wants to do is fire yet another barrage of rockets against Israel, preferring to save its money — and rockets — for the survival of Hezbollah.
— Sami Moubayed is a historian and former Carnegie scholar. He is also author of the best-seller Under the Black Flag: At the frontier of the New Jihad.