Israel's Beirut strike signals new phase in war

Hezbollah’s media spokesman Mohammad Afif was not an important target for Israel. He was not a military figure and probably knew nothing about battle strategy or arms.

He had not been targeted since outbreak of war in mid-September and would often speak to international journalists from well-known locations, without the need to hide in bunkers.

The strike that killed him on 17 November was therefore a premier, first for targeting a non-military figure and secondly, because it was launched deep in the Lebanese capital rather than its southern suburb. Killing Afif implies that Israel has entered a stage where it might try to assassinate Hezbollah figures, taking the offensive to a new level.

This coincides with a US proposal for a ceasefire, presented over the weekend to Hezbollah’s ally Nabih Berri, the speaker of Lebanon’s parliament. Hezbollah has reportedly reacted positively to the proposal, eager to stop the assault before Donald Trump is sworn-in on 20 January 2025.

Unlivable southern Lebanon

In the Lebanese south, the Israeli army is not trying to invade and occupy territory like it did in 1978 and 1982 but rather, is blowing up entire towns and villages, one-after-another, after having ordering their residents to evacuate. The entire south will soon be completely both uninhabited.

So will the southern suburb of Beirut, also known as Al Dahiyeh. This will force Hezbollah to seek sanctuary in non-Shiite areas.

Hezbollah can continue to resist but there are limits as to how far it can go and pretty soon, will have no choice but to accept a ceasefire based on UNSCR 1701 of 2006 and by extension, UNSCR 1559 of 2005.

The two UN resolutions call for the deployment of the Lebanese Army in the south and disarming of all militias and non-state players, in reference to Hezbollah.

A disarmed Hezbollah

It is yet to be seen whether Iran will comply and call on Hezbollah to disarm peacefully. If it does, which is unlikely, Lebanese officialdom will have two options on how to implement UNSCR 1701: either to call on the Lebanese Army to disarm Hezbollah, or ask for an international Arab force like the Arab Deterrent Force that was created by the Arab League for Lebanon, early into its civil war in 1976.

A disarmed Hezbollah will still be able to survive in Lebanese politics, banking on its large power base and the demographic dominance of Lebanese Shiites, who are over 60% of the population. They would still hold 17 seats in parliament, which entitles them to representation in the cabinet of ministers, on an average of 2-3 ministers per government.

Hezbollah’s strength would then come from its size and weight, rather than its arsenal, and re-entering politics as a disarmed party is something that nobody would object to, not even Israel.

Expanding the Lebanese Army

In anticipation of an upcoming mission to deploy in the south and possibly, to get tasked with disarming Hezbollah, the Lebanese Army has called for the recruitment of 15,000 new soldiers.

Although it doesn’t say it, this recruitment would have to be cross-sectarian and try and attract Sunnis, Druze, and Christians in order to tip the present sectarian balance in the armed forces, who are presently 60% Shiites.

If these soldiers are asked to take on Hezbollah, many would resist. Others might defect to join Hezbollah. It would be a sad scene, dragging the country into another civil war.

If only Shiites show up as new recruits, this would only increase challenges and make the Lebanese army “mission impossible.” Since last July, Army Commander Joseph Aoun has been toying with the idea of attracting new recruits, originally suggesting 6,000. This is what he presented to the Biden Administration when he visited Washington last June.

Defence Minister Maurice Salem was unaware of the proposal and he is at daggers-end with the Army Commander. Salem was opposed to the extension of Aoun’s term last December, and he has boycotted cabinet sessions since the end of Michel Aoun’s term in October 2022.

Call for new recruits

Salem is a member of the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), headed by Michel Aoun’s son-in-law Gibran Bassil he is arguing against the expansion not to please Hezbollah but out of animosity for Joseph Aoun who is bypassing his authority at the Ministry of Defense.

Last August, Army Commander Joseph Aoun briefed Prime Minister Najib Mikati of his plan to enlist 6,000 new recruits, who raised the matter before the cabinet of ministers in the absence of Defense Minister Salem. On 6 November 2024, Aoun and Mikati agreed to raise the number to 15,000 new recruits. Mikati requested a loan from the Ministry of Finance — on behalf of Army Command — to finance the recruitment.

At present, the Lebanese Army presently stands at 83,000 troops, a quarter of whom are in administrative jobs who only show up for work three days a week. There are an additional 6,000 reserves on-hold, ready for engagement in the south when and if they are tasked with the job.

The call for new recruits is creating major resentment within the retired military community, especially for officers who were pensioned off in the last few years and feel that they are still fit to return to uniform.

They are arguing that unlike new recruits, they don’t need training and know the military institution very well. They also know the terrain in south Lebanon.

Calling them back into service might not be a bad idea, and it certainly would cost less and be much quicker than training 6,000 young men.

— Sami Moubayed is a historian and former Carnegie scholar. He is also author of the best-seller Under the Black Flag: At the frontier of the New Jihad.