Syria’s economic rebuilding requires its diaspora to return
One of the bigger unknowns for now is whether there is enough room for returnees
With the change of regime in Syria, the country has entered a new phase fraught with challenges. After 13 years of intense civil war, compounded by the involvement of numerous global and regional actors, Syria has been fragmented into multiple spheres of influence and ongoing conflicts.
Much of the analysis following the regime's fall has centered on the political and geopolitical ramifications of the armed forces taking control in Damascus.
While this was expected in the aftermath of major events, another critical dimension warrants attention: the economic challenges that will profoundly shape Syria's future and the character of the new governance.
The Syrian economy is in a dire state after more than a decade of war. The GDP shrunk by an estimated 85%, according to the World Bank, due to the destruction of hundreds of factories and essential institutions in education, health, and other sectors. The national currency, the Syrian pound, has collapsed, and the infrastructure has suffered massive devastation.
Adding to the crisis is the significant loss of human capital. Over 5 million Syrians fled the country, among them engineers, doctors, skilled professionals, and specialized businesspeople.
Many of these individuals have settled in nations that actively sought their expertise, such as Germany, which alone has taken in 1 million Syrian refugees, including a substantial number of highly qualified individuals. The German health minister said that his country's health sector could suffer a crisis without the estimated 5,000 Syrian doctors.
These professionals are now contributing to their host countries' economies, filling gaps in development and services. Rebuilding Syria’s economy and infrastructure will require between $600 billion to $800 billion, according to multiple sources, and an extended timeline.
The rehabilitation of tens of thousands of professionals is also necessary, though many are unlikely to return after integrating into their host countries and acquiring citizenship in wealthier, more developed nations. And now, 47% of Syrian nationals have expressed a desire to return to Syria.
The most pressing challenge facing the new regime is meeting the population's expectations for improved living conditions and essential services, assuming the political and security situation stabilizes.
Can Syria accommodate returnees?
The return of refugees will exacerbate the problem, introducing hundreds of thousands of unemployed individuals into an economy ill-equipped to accommodate them.
The public sector, having lost critical income sources such as oil revenues, and the private sector, crippled by the destruction of factories, service institutions, and commercial enterprises, are unable to absorb this influx. Many business owners have already moved their savings and investments abroad, further weakening domestic economic capacity.
Rebuilding Syria will require vast investments that the current government cannot provide. Despite Syria's natural and agricultural resources, a historically active commercial sector, and strategic location for transportation and logistics, the scale of reconstruction demands external support.
A development initiative akin to a Marshall Plan, funded by wealthy nations, will be crucial. However, this hinges on the clarity of the new regime's vision, its approach to uniting the diverse elements of Syrian society, and its engagement with global and regional powers.
Rebuild from scratch
In addition to international aid, attracting foreign direct investment (FDI)—particularly from Syrian expatriates—requires a robust framework of guarantees, laws, and regulations. Currently, such a framework is absent. Infrastructure and logistics also remain inadequate, further deterring potential investors.
Without these critical elements, neither the political nor the economic situation will stabilize. This reality must be fully grasped, as the population's patience with slogans will quickly wear thin, turning their focus toward tangible improvements in their standard of living.
Syria, with its abundant resources and wealth, has the potential to offer its citizens a dignified life—but only if these challenges are effectively addressed.
Syria's stability is not only essential for its people but also for the security of the region. Preventing the country from descending into extremism requires rebuilding its economy and reducing the poverty and unemployment that provide fertile grounds for radicalization.
Ensuring a minimum standard of living is a formidable task, but it is the only path to placing Syria on a trajectory toward progress and growth.