How high can Dubai luxury home prices and demand go in 2024?
A Dh500m penthouse sale on Palm Jumeirah capped a monumental year
The luxury property market in Dubai experienced a monumental breakthrough in 2023, setting records across various metrics. The Como Residences’ penthouse on Palm Jumeirah reached an all-time high, achieving a staggering Dh24,000 per square foot for Dh500 million.
The luxury market's pinnacle was further accentuated by the sales of ultra-premium apartments, with a Marsa Al Arab unit fetching Dh410 million, another at Bulgari Lighthouse going for Dh420 million. A custom-built mansion in Palm Jumeirah was sold for an impressive Dh600 million, solidifying Dubai's position as a hub of unparalleled opulence and luxury.
The market also witnessed a surge in high-value transactions, with 1,200 sales of apartments priced above Dh11 million, according to DXBInteract.com. These transactions were spread across 150 luxury projects located in 10 major master communities, reflecting a significant influx of wealthy investors, many of whom are billionaires.
Impact on land prices
The escalating demand has profoundly impacted land prices, particularly for well-located prime plots. This was exemplified by a plot on the Dubai water canal, which sold for a record-breaking Dh1,700 psf on the GFA, more than quadrupling from the pre-Covid average of Dh400.
This substantial increase is attributed to the transformative nature of real estate developments around the Dubai Canal, including projects like the Four Seasons, Mr. C, and other branded residences. The completed apartments in these developments average Dh8,000 psf, substantiating the premium land prices.
2024 projections
In 2024, the luxury real estate landscape in Dubai is poised for further evolution with the introduction of new luxury icons. La Mer is expected to unveil exquisite mansions, with prices starting at Dh90 million and extending to Dh400 million.
Al Wasl Villas are set to emerge as another prestigious community, offering around 140 mansions situated between Jumeirah Beach Road, the Dubai Water Canal, Sheikh Zayed Road, Downtown, and Citywalk.
Jumeira Bay island is set to welcome the delivery of more luxurious mansions.
- This year, the delivery of ultra-luxury units is expected to be moderate, suggesting that the equilibrium between demand and supply for ready luxury homes will likely remain intact.
- The trend of purchasing offplan ultra-luxury properties is projected to intensify.
- The sustainability of the ultra-luxury segment is set to be rigorously tested from late 2025 to 2027, particularly after the supply of newly completed units.
- The narrative of luxury real estate in Dubai will increasingly feature the launch of branded residences, as such associations are becoming a fundamental criterion for defining luxury within the market.
- I anticipate the continuation of a significant trend from 2023 into 2024 - while the luxury segment is flourishing and many ultra-luxury developments are setting records, it's important to note this success is not universal. Some ultra-luxury projects have not garnered interest right from the outset. This lack of attention can primarily be attributed to a combination of factors, including overambitious pricing, less-than-ideal locations, misaligned brand names, ineffective branding, or flawed project launch strategies.
On close examination of the micro-market fundamentals within Dubai's luxury real estate, there is a strong inclination to deem it a market driven by genuine demand rather than speculative activity. Notably, investment in properties valued above Dh15 million, especially those ascending to half a billion dirhams, is typically not speculative. Dubai has emerged as a steadfast destination for these individuals to invest in trophy assets, thereby shifting market share from traditionally recognized safe havens such as London, New York, and Paris.
In the event of an exit by any billionaire investor, the market dynamic mandates that the asset would likely transition to another individual of similar financial stature. A look at major cities that attract trophy asset investors reveals a consistent trend - once a city is established as a billionaires' destination, it tends to retain that status indefinitely, regardless of global or local market shifts.
While a continuous increase in prices within the ultra-luxury segment is not foreseen, a consistent and stable number of sales transactions, particularly in the offplan sector, is anticipated. Ultimately, the true measure of sustainability for any segment in the real estate market will be when properties are completed and must stand up to the scrutiny of actual end-user demand…