Anti-immigrant parties have long linked Muslim immigration to crime, but verifiable data to support their arguments have been scarce. That makes a newly published German study an important reference point. It’s one of the first attempts to measure the effect the refugee wave of 2015 and 2016 has had on violent crime in Germany, and while it can be construed to support parts of the anti-immigrant agenda, it also suggests reasonable policies to mitigate the problems.
The government-commissioned study uses material from Germany’s fourth most populous state, Lower Saxony, home to Volkswagen. About 750,000 of its 8 million residents don’t have German citizenship and, according to official data, about 170,000 of them had applied for asylum. That’s also the fourth highest number in Germany.
The researchers asked for data that specifically concerned asylum applicants, both successful and unsuccessful, who had arrived in 2015 and 2016. It turned out that asylum seekers had reversed the decreasing violent crime trend in Lower Saxony. While such crime went down by 21.9 per cent between 2007 and 2014, it was up again by 10.4 per cent by the end of 2016. Some 83 per cent of the cases were solved — and 92.1 per cent of the increase was attributable to the newcomers.
That’s a number the anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany, which got into parliament last year — thanks to its vocal opposition to Chancellor Angela Merkel’s decision to let in more than a million asylum seekers — could inscribe on its banner. Other data points are also damning. Between 2014 and 2016, the share of solved violent crimes attributed to asylum seekers increased to 13.3 per cent from 4.3 per cent — a disproportionately high share compared with the state’s foreign population.
Had the German government admitted this stark reality, Merkel’s political punishment for her generosity to refugees might have been harsher and the AfD might have done even better. German government agencies were ill-equipped to deal with such an inflow of asylum seekers, and German society is paying the price of that lack of preparedness. Germans, however, are good at acknowledging and correcting mistakes, and the study provides some quality clues on what can be done to improve the situation. It’s not quite what the AfD would have done.
One strong conclusion that can be drawn from the data is that asylum seekers’ criminal inclinations vary sharply by country of origin.
While genuine refugees from the war zones of Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan commit a smaller proportion of crimes than their share of the total asylum-seeker population, newcomers from other places are way too visible in crime statistics for their small numbers.
The breakdown of specific crimes committed by the asylum seekers is equally thought-provoking. In some 91 per cent of murders and three-quarters of cases involving grave bodily damage the victims are other migrants. Yet, in 70 per cent of robberies and 58.6 per cent of rape and sexual assault cases, the victims are German. The explanations are intuitive. Asylum seekers often share cramped quarters, which frequently leads to conflicts. For months after their arrival, they are forbidden to work, and their language skills and status often prevent employment long after that restriction is lifted — so robbers are motivated by jealousy of the locals and a lack of legitimate ways to make money. As for the sex crimes, it’s disturbing to think that it reflects behaviour that would go unpunished, or is even encouraged, at home; it’s certainly the case that the refugees are often uncertain how to behave with local women — and many of them didn’t bring their own.
Anti-immigrant politicians don’t have the answers; their instincts are likely to exacerbate many of these problems. In Austria, the programme of the governing coalition, which includes the far-right Freedom Party, demands that asylum seekers be denied private-sector housing — presumably so they’re easier to control. In March 2016, the German government suspended family reunification for refugees with a limited protection status, which applies to more than 20 per cent of 2017 applicants. Naturally, those whose applications have been declined but who are still in Germany pending appeals (more than a third of 2017 applicants) cannot bring their families, either. The suspension runs out in March, and the AfD and the liberal Free Democrats want to extend it, while left-wing parties oppose any further extension. If the Pfeiffer study is any indication, the leftists have the better idea. The researchers wrote:
“The vast majority of young, male refugees live here without partners, mothers, sisters or other female caregivers. As a result, the violence-preventing, civilising effect that comes from women is very limited. Groups of young men with a violence-oriented internal dynamic can form among the refugees. Demands for family reunification finds here a criminological justification.”
Under pressure to pacify voters, the German government has been turning down a higher percentage of asylum applications than in 2015 and 2016 and trying to expel more unwanted immigrants. That won’t necessarily reduce crime: Those who are already in Germany but know they will find it hard to stay legally are more frustrated and more motivated to join the underworld.
There’s no denying that the disorderly immigration of 2015 and 2016 has resulted in measurable damage to German society. Despite its major problem with population ageing and its need for immigrants, Germany has learned the hard way that it must have more control over who comes in.
But it must also move on from the trauma of Merkel’s shock decision to working more meaningfully with newcomers, who are, for the most part, there to stay, whatever politicians may think of it. That means providing strong language and professional training, offering more housing options and allowing families to reunite to address the gender imbalance. Strong and transparent police action is also required to protect social norms and keep society adequately informed, even if the data seem to reinforce anti-immigrant attitudes.
— Bloomberg
Leonid Bershidsky is a Bloomberg View columnist.
