Israel aims to force back Hezbollah without starting ground war

Israel has attacked Hezbollah in Lebanon every day for the past week - from commander assassinations to the destruction of missile launchers - in what officials say is an attempt to force the group to pull back from the border and stop its own rocket barrage.

Yet unlike the campaign against Hamas in Gaza, Israel’s goal is less about eliminating its enemy than forcing it into a retreat. That would prevent the need for a boots-on-the ground war and enable about 65,000 Israelis displaced from the border area to return home.

“We are destroying military infrastructure that Hezbollah has built over the past 20 years,” Israel’s top general, Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi, said on Monday. “Everything needs to be aimed at creating the conditions to return the residents of the north to their homes.”

For many Lebanese, efforts to achieve that goal have been catastrophic, with hundreds killed in air strikes and tens of thousands forced from their homes. Almost 500 people died on Monday alone, with 1,650 injured, in Israel’s heaviest bombardment on Lebanon since 2006.

That followed an attack last week in which thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies owned primarily by Hezbollah members in Lebanon exploded. Hezbollah and Iran blamed Israel, which neither confirmed nor denied responsibility.

Israel’s plan, at least for now, appears to be to stop short of a ground invasion, although officials say that hasn’t been ruled out.

One risk of such a move is the potential capture of soldiers by Iran-backed Hezbollah and a repeat of the protracted and unresolved negotiation process over retrieving hostages held in Gaza. Another is the potentially high human and economic toll of a lengthy campaign.

“Unlike with aerial sorties which are over in a couple of hours, when you go in on the ground you are in there for days or weeks at least,” Giora Eiland, a retired army general and former national security adviser, said by phone.

The aim instead would be to apply enough military stress on Hezbollah’s leadership to try and bring about a diplomatic solution, according to a person familiar with the Israeli strategy. That’s an outcome long urged by the US, with Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin speaking regularly with Israeli counterpart Yoav Gallant.

“The era of containment is over,” Ron Ben Yishay, a prominent analyst for Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper, said on Monday, as he described the policy of increased pressure every day.

Another objective would be to ensure there’s no invasion of Israel by Hezbollah’s well-trained Radwan Force along the lines of Oct. 7, when thousands of Hamas operatives killed 1,200 people and abducted 250 in the south of the country. That attack triggered the ongoing war in Gaza, and a repeat from the north has long been feared by many Israelis.

Israel’s campaign in Gaza has killed more than 41,000 people, according to the Hamas-run health ministry there. Talks aimed at securing a truce have long been deadlocked and some hostages remain in captivity, while much of the territory has been destroyed in the conflict.

US concern

The US, which is trying to negotiate cease-fires in Lebanon and Gaza, considers Hamas and Hezbollah to be terrorist groups. And while it says Israel must be allowed to defend itself, the risk of a regional war is of enormous concern, especially weeks before a presidential election.

A French envoy, Jean-Yves Le Drian, is in Beirut seeking a de-escalation on behalf of the US and France.

Hezbollah began shelling Israel on Oct. 8, fighting in solidarity with Hamas. The threat was so great that the government evacuated tens of thousands of Israelis from their homes within several miles of the Lebanon border.

Israel returned fire and a similar number of southern Lebanese felt sufficiently unsafe that they headed north, abandoning burning villages.

For now, it’s far from clear to what extent Israel will rein in the Lebanese campaign. Military strategists are asserting they’ve done substantial damage to Hezbollah’s missile arsenal in recent days.

While that may be so, there’s little indication that Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, will agree to move his men and arms away from Israel.

Israel perhaps “hasn’t decided yet just how high to raise the flames and whether to opt for a full-scale war,” commentator Ariel Kahana wrote Tuesday in the right-leaning Israel Hayom newspaper.

He went on to urge more aggressive action if necessary, a fairly common position held in Israel.

“Even if we have to suffer missile fire on central Israel, once we get back up at the end of the war, we will be able to do so with our heads held high, after having removed the threat of Hezbollah.”