The battle for Raqqa will take time

Beirut

Last weekend, two military orders were made in the Syrian battlefield, overlapping perhaps but not necessarily coordinated.

The first was by the United States to its proxy Kurdish militia, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to start the battle for Al Raqqa, the self-proclaimed capital of Daesh, on the Euphrates River. It has been officially called the “Euphrates Rage Battle.”

The second order was by Syrian Army Command to start the battle for Al Bab, a strategic town 40 kilometres northeast of Aleppo, held by Daesh since November 2013.

The Turks have also been out to retake Al Bab, which is just 30km south of their border with Syria, and had lobbied hard to lead the battle for Al Raqqa, with no avail. The battles for Al Raqqa and Al Bab, which overlap with the major ongoing battle for Mosul in Iraq, indicate that the days of Daesh as we knew it, might be coming to an end. It also shows that a race is underway by all stakeholders in Syria, to maximise gains ahead of the US elections — boots on the ground marking their spheres of influence.

The Al Raqqa battle will not be swift, however, and might last into well into next summer, according to one government source in Damascus well-informed on battlefield updates, who spoke to Gulf News.

“Between now and then, anybody can join the battle, and the current forces that started it might be brushed aside.”

He seemed to be hinting that the Syrian Army might soon join the fight for Al Raqqa, depending on what happens in Aleppo. From a military position, the city itself is relatively easy to retake, given that its streets are wide and its buildings are low, making urban warfare and sniping very difficult to carry out.

Additionally Al Raqqa lies atop a reservoir of water because of the Euphrates River, making tunnel-digging impossible.

Maintaining a victory in Al Raqqa is hard, however, because of its volatile countryside and its open borders with Aleppo in the west, Al Hassakeh in the east, and Deir ez Zour in the southeast.

A spillover from Aleppo is very possible, given that the war-torn city is currently under heavy fire by the Russians and stands 160km from Aleppo. Before taking Al Raqqa, it needs to be cut off completely from its geographic surrounding. That might take a very long time and only when it is complete can the Syrian Democratic Forces — or any forces — march physically on Al Raqqa. “The Americans are seemingly more interested in announcing the start of the battle than in the battle itself” said the source in Damascus, echoing what was said in the pro-Hezbullah Lebanese daily Al Akhbar, which wrote that Al Raqqa battle was nothing but an “election support card” in the US presidential race, coming 48-hours before Election Day, and aimed at boosting the position of the Democrats and their candidate, Hillary Clinton.

The Syrian Democratic Forces are leading Al Raqqa battle after retaking Manbij (30km west of the Euphrates) last August. Approximately 35,000 troops are currently engaged in the battle for Al Raqqa, with the help of 300 American advisers from the United States Special Operation Forces.

Given that the SDF is an all-Kurd US-backed militia, it is viewed with scrutiny and suspicion by local Syrians. The armed Syrian opposition is unhappy with the Al-Raqqa battle, wanting the honours for themselves, and of course, nor are the Syrian Government, or the Russians or the Turks.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who had explicitly asked the Americans to let his troops take on Al Raqqa single-handedly, is furious with the empowering of Kurdish militia via the Al Raqqa battle, especially given the fact that leading the offensive are the People’s Protection Units (YPG), a militia labelled by the Turkish government as terrorists. Erdogan wanted the Al Raqqa battle to get postponed until after the US-led coalition retakes Mosul in Iraq, but his calls fell on deaf ears in Washington.

Trying to soothe regime forces and the Russians, SDF spokesman Talal Selo said that “there will be no confrontation between us and the Syrian Army.” But he dismissed chances of any cooperation simply because government troops are totally absent from Al Raqqa and its vicinity.

Many are wondering why Kurds are being asked to lead the battle for Al Raqqa, a non-Kurdish city, despite all objections this might cause among its Arab population.

When the US and the Iraqi Army marched on Ramadi in the Anbar province they didn’t let Shiite militias take part in the battles, so as not to provoke the Arab population, yet Kurds to Al Raqqa are what Shiite militias are to the residents of Anbar.

The current battlefield strategy is to first bomb Daesh positions inside Al Raqqa, destroying weapons storehouses and lines of communication while eliminating top Daesh commanders. Stage Two, which is currently underway, would be to enforce a full blockade of the city and prevent any arms or fighters from reaching Al Raqqa. Step Three would be to march on Al Raqqa. The SDF has not announced when they expect this to happen.