Iran hardliners smell victory after Trump’s midterm defeat: Is Tehran raising the price of peace?

Dubai: As Qatar and other regional mediators intensify efforts to avert renewed US strikes on Iran, hardliners in Tehran are seizing on President Donald Trump’s midterm election setback to demand tougher terms for ending the conflict, raising questions about whether the diplomatic push can succeed.

Influential Iranian conservatives believe Washington’s weakened political position has given Tehran greater negotiating leverage and are warning against allowing Trump to secure a quick agreement without significant concessions, CNN reported.

Their demands come as Qatar attempts to bridge differences between Washington and Tehran, while Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi holds talks with regional counterparts.

Why are Iranian hardliners celebrating?

The Republican Party’s defeat in the US midterm elections has emboldened conservative politicians and media outlets in Iran, who interpret the result as vindication of Tehran’s resistance to American pressure.

Trump acknowledged that the Iran war contributed to Republican losses, while Vice President JD Vance wrote on X: “The reason we lost is the war.”

Iranian hardline outlet Raja News warned against offering Trump an easy exit, arguing that Washington should pay a higher price for attacking Iran rather than secure a hurried agreement.

Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei also warned on Wednesday against the “slightest inclination towards submission”, a message hardliners interpreted as a warning to Iranian negotiators against making concessions.

Could Trump’s defeat complicate peace talks?

Hamidreza Azizi, a senior Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group, told CNN that Tehran views the election results as vindication of its strategy.

“The Iranian leadership sees the recent election results as a vindication of its strategy against the US,” he said.

Azizi believes Iran could now harden its negotiating position, particularly over nuclear concessions, while insisting that Washington make the first move.

Trump, however, may need tangible concessions from Tehran to justify a settlement domestically.

The competing demands could complicate efforts to reach an agreement.

Mediators intensify diplomatic efforts

Qatar said on Friday that Trump had spoken with Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani about de-escalation.

A day earlier, Araghchi spoke with counterparts from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Oman, Pakistan, Kuwait, Jordan, Turkey, Cyprus and Qatar.

Qatari mediators have been attempting to bridge differences between the two sides and create conditions for renewed nuclear negotiations.

A regional official told CNN that the risk of renewed war had eased following the Republican defeat, although further escalation remained possible.

Trump has continued to leave military options open, warning on Thursday that Washington was deciding whether to intensify its campaign against Iran.

What price does Iran want for peace?

Although Iran has already outlined seven conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, including an end to hostilities, compensation, US troop withdrawal and sanctions relief, hardliners now argue that Trump’s political setback should be used to extract greater concessions. However, no additional formal demands have been announced.

Sina Toossi, a senior non-resident fellow at the Center for International Policy, told CNN that Iran wants a settlement providing stronger deterrence, lasting leverage and a regional order in which Washington and Israel face greater costs for attacking it.

Despite claims of victory among hardliners, Iran has suffered severe military and economic damage during the conflict, while US sanctions and a maritime blockade continue to strain its economy.

Toossi said those losses also explain why Tehran is reluctant to surrender its remaining leverage without securing lasting concessions.

For regional mediators, the challenge is increasingly delicate: Trump needs an agreement he can defend at home, while Iranian hardliners believe his election setback gives Tehran reason to demand more.

The question is whether that confidence will strengthen Iran’s bargaining position — or make an already difficult peace agreement even harder to reach.