Experts divided over Iran crisis

Abu Dhabi: Experts and strategists differ on the threats Iran impose on the region. While one side says it doesn't constitute a danger, the other side believe Tehran represents five major kinds of current and potential threats.

Among the latter is Dr. Anthony H. Cordesman, a US-based strategist who is attending the 12th annual conference of Emirates Centre for Strategic Studies and Research on Arabian Gulf Security — Internal and External Challenges.

"As a conventional military power, as an asymmetric threat that can seek to intimidate of attack using unconventional forces, as a potential nuclear power armed with long-range missiles, as a potential religious and ideological threat in a region and Islamic world polarised along sectarian lines, and the ability to use proxies and partners in the form of state and non-state actors," he said.

Cordesman said he believed that all these potential threats can be contained with the right choice or policies and military actions, saying Iran is a nation that will probably respond to the proper security incentives over time.

"The real question may will be weather Iran's neighbours and the US provide the right mix of deterrence and incentives, and not Iran's current and potential strength," he said.

While referring to redefining of US-GCC relations for creating a true security partnership, Cordesman said the US needs to pay more attention to its regional friends and allies in shaping its policies towards Iran and its overall security posture in the Gulf.

Terje Rod-Larsen President of International Peace Academy and UN Secretary General's Special Envoy for the Implementation of Security Council Resolution 1559, noted Iran is now the main play in the region and represents the core epicenter of the crisis.

He said though Iran has the right to develop nuclear energy for civilian purposes, its nuclear programme for military purposes will further weaken world's no-profliferation regime.

Rød-Larsen said: "The Iranian nuclear programme and ambitions have raised many questions, both in the wider international community and in this region. Fears have been voiced, rightly or wrongly, whether we are seeing a revival of age-old Persian nationalist ambitions."

However, Professor Mahmood Sariolghalam from National University of Iran, believes that Iran is no more a threat to the region.

He noted: "Iran today no longer is an offensive state but a defensive state which is trying to maintain good relations with its neighbours. We have common geography, and we need to defend our common interests and engage each other in commercial, cultural and academic cooperation."

The Iranian scholar said the root perceptions of power reflected in Tehran's foreign policy is self-sufficiency and indigenousness.

"The idea that Iran is under direct threat from the United States prevails among Iranian security officials, who believe that the ultimate US aim is to unseat the government of Iran. The Rafsanjani and Khatami presidencies sought to engage with the international system. However, this approach has not penetrated the mindset of the national security apparatus in Iran," he maintained.