Expectations are bleak for Syria’s future

Beirut: Three years into its bloody civil war, the transition from dictatorship to democracy in Syria is confronted unprecedented hurdles, which included multiple opposition groups and major power manoeuvring.

Although the Syrian National Coalition (SNC) aspired towards democratisation, its operations were far less coordinated than many assumed, as several of its leaders simply quit.

In July 2013, prime minister Gassan Hitto resigned, just a few days after Ahmad Al Jarba was elected president. Earlier, Muath Al Khatib also resigned, frustrated over poor international support, internal divisions, and a serious disarray among “rebel” factions.

Of course, Moscow and Tehran added their own morbid quests to the boiling pot, insisting that the ultimate removal of Syrian President Bashar Al Assad and his regime could not be contemplated at this stage.

Ongoing negotiations attempt to devise a cease-fire plan although extensive military campaigns continue unabated. Syria’s main opposition force the Free Syrian Army has lost ground to various Islamist groups ranging from the Muslim Brotherhood, Al Nurah and the Islamic State of Iraq and Al Sham (Isis).

Introducing democracy in such a context, while desirable in principle, remains highly improbable. Many observers who were previously supporting the opposition movement against Al Assad are now becoming apprehensive following the empowerment of Islamist groups across the country, with many preferring the tyranny of Al Assad to the possibility of a state controlled by Islamists.

Also, observers are noting that the conflict has taken on increasingly sectarian dimensions which bode dangerously for the future.

The chatter over an upcoming peace conference known as Geneva II has been mostly pessimistic as Syria’s chief ally Iran has been emboldened over a nuclear deal reached with Western Powers, the opposition is severely weakened and losing on the ground to the regime and the West has signficantly cut back aid to the Free Syrian Army.

The opposition enters talks at a severe disadvantage which could result in it making tremendous concessions to the current Syrian regime.