Christian voters hold the key to power in Lebanon

Beirut: It is only three days to election day, but Christine has yet to make up her mind. She is one of the undecided voters who are seemingly unmoved by the political noise and the jungle of election posters that stare at her all day long.

But as a Christian, her vote may well tip the balance in this election, described as the most important in Lebanon's modern history.

The 28-year-old Maronite saleswoman at an elegant shoe store at Beirut's famous Hamra Street says she might vote for the pro-Western ruling March 14 coalition when she goes back to her northern Maronite town of Al Batroun to cast her vote on Sunday.

"I am not really sure," she says. "I might change my mind. My family will probably vote for Al Tayyar," she added, referring to the opposition's Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), led by former General Michel Aoun.

Many Lebanese Christians like Christine are undecided, and there is a fierce battle between the two camps, March 14 and the opposition, led by Aoun and Hezbollah to win their hearts and minds.

Most politicians and analysts agree that the real election battles will only take place in the Christian areas. In the Muslim areas, the election seems to be a forgone conclusion.

The three largest Muslim communities, the Sunnis, the Shiites and Druze traditionally tow the line of their strong leaders.

Lists nominated by the four biggest Muslim parties - the mainly Sunni Future Movement, the Shiite Hezbollah and Amal Movement and the mainly Druze Socialist Progressive Party, usually win unopposed.

"The Christians are different. We have always been divided," says MP Antoine Zahra, from the Lebanese Forces Party, who is running on the March 14 list in Al Batroun.

"It is unrealistic to say there is an absolute conformity in the Muslim public opinion but the divide is certainly wider among the Christians," he told Gulf News.

He says it is good to have different political opinions. "This keeps our unique democracy alive and prevents any tyrannical tendencies."

But, he adds, "We all should be united in our belief in democracy, in the constitution and the moral authority of the church."

He accuses Aoun's FPM, which is allied with the Shiite group Hezbollah, of trying to "stir the Christians away from their traditionally secular belief in the supremacy of one unifying state." March 14 claim Hezbollah has built its own state and army to fight on behalf of Syria and Iran.

Bassam Al Hashim, a FPM official says "Christian political plurality" must be cherished.

"We don't have a fundamental problem with the Lebanese Forces Party or [the other pro-government Christian party] the Phalanges. We have a political struggle that should be kept peaceful and civil," he told Gulf News. However, he says it was "unfair" to portray General Aoun as "one among equal".

Christian leader Aoun, who is widely expected to garner the largest block of Christian MPs in the upcoming parliament, "represents a new phenomenon" in the political arena, Al Hashim said.

Christine, the saleswoman, says many of her friends who voted for Aoun in 2005 will vote for his opponents this time. She cites the PFM's alliance with Hezbollah as one of the reasons.

"But many others are sticking with him because he is different from these corrupt politicians who have ruled for the past two decades," she said. She, meanwhile, has yet to decide.

It is widely believed that the Future (Al Mostaqbal) Party, the mainly Sunni movement led by Sa'ad Hariri and Hezbollah are spending the greater part of their campaign money in Christian areas to help their cash-strapped allies and woo undecided voters like Christine.

According to analysts, the Christian vote, especially in areas like Al Batroun (two seats), the mountainous area of Al Metn (eight seats), the Beirut eastern district of Ashrafieh (five seats) and the eastern city of Zahle (seven seats) will decide which camp will win the majority in the upcoming parliament and form the government.

In Zahle for example, there are 158,000 voters of whom 58 per cent are Christian and 42 per cent Muslim.

According to the Arabic daily An Nahar, the Sunnis will undoubtedly vote for the ruling coalition and the Shiites will vote for opposition.

"The list that gets the majority of the Christian vote will win the district," it said on Wednesday.

"It is true that we seem to be divided, but it remains up to us how the future of this country will be," Zahra says.