What’s really in the Ukraine peace proposal? The questions shaping the talks

A new push to end the nearly four-year war in Ukraine has begun to take shape, driven by a US initiative that has set off intense diplomatic movement from Washington to Moscow, Kyiv and Europe. The initial 28-point plan, which was heavily tilted toward Russian demands, prompted alarm in Ukraine and across European capitals, leading to counterproposals and a rapid effort to revise the document. While US President Donald Trump says the sides are “very close to a deal,” no final text has been published, and Russia says it has not received the updated version through official channels.

The stakes are enormous. Ukraine remains battered by missile and drone strikes; Russia faces sanctions and heavy losses; and Europe is fighting to ensure it is not sidelined in negotiations that will shape the continent’s security architecture. With US envoy Steve Witkoff heading to Moscow, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signalling cautious openness, and European leaders laying down red lines, the peace process is gaining momentum — but remains deeply fragile.

What sparked the renewed diplomatic push?

The latest momentum began when the United States circulated a peace plan last week. Its contents, which leaned heavily toward Russian demands, generated unease in Kyiv and across Europe. Ukraine and its allies quickly drafted counterproposals, leading to “fine-tuning” discussions in Geneva. It was after those talks that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the plan could be “workable,” even though major disagreements remain unresolved.

Who is leading the effort to broker a deal?

The United States is driving the process. Envoy Steve Witkoff, US Army Secretary Dan Driscoll and Secretary of State Marco Rubio have taken central roles. Russia’s side is coordinated by Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov, while Ukraine’s position is shaped directly by Zelenskyy and senior officials. Europeans, meanwhile, are pushing to ensure they have a meaningful voice, insisting that any settlement must reflect their strategic interests.

Main points of the initial US peace plan

• Ukraine would cede the entire Donbas to Russia

• Ukraine’s military would be capped at 600,000 personnel

• Ukraine and any new member would be barred from joining NATO

• No NATO troops would be permitted on Ukrainian territory

• The US and Europe would have no obligation to defend Ukraine in case of new attacks

• Russia would pledge no further attacks, with sanctions applied if it violates the agreement

• Ukraine and European allies have sought major changes to these points

What does Russia say about the plan so far?

Yuri Ushakov confirmed that Witkoff will travel to Moscow next week, but said Russia has not received the latest version through official channels. While he acknowledged that Moscow has seen the document, he said it requires “truly serious analysis.” According to him, “Some aspects can be viewed positively, but many require special discussions among experts.” He also insisted that no detailed point-by-point negotiations have taken place.

What did the initial US plan propose?

The original draft called for sweeping concessions from Ukraine. It required Ukraine to cede the entire Donbas region to Russia, limit its armed forces to 600,000 personnel, and accept restrictions that would bar its NATO membership and prevent NATO troops from being stationed on its territory. The plan also did not commit the United States or Europe to defend Ukraine if Russia attacked again. In return, Russia would pledge not to launch further attacks, with sanctions applied if it violated that pledge. These terms prompted alarm in Kyiv and Europe, which argued that the proposal rewarded Russian aggression.

How has Ukraine responded to these terms?

Ukrainian officials have pushed back strongly. They want the military cap lifted, insist that NATO membership must remain possible, and argue that territorial questions should not be discussed until after a ceasefire. Despite these objections, Zelenskyy said after the Geneva meeting that the US plan could be “workable,” suggesting space for further negotiation. Ukrainian officials also hope Zelenskyy will travel to the United States soon to discuss the matter directly with Trump.

What is Europe’s position in the talks?

European leaders are determined to make sure the continent is not sidelined. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz warned that “an agreement negotiated by great powers without the approval of the Ukrainians and without the approval of the Europeans won’t be a basis for a real, sustainable peace in Ukraine.” EU chief Ursula von der Leyen stressed that Europe “will stand with Ukraine and support Ukraine every step of the way,” insisting that no settlement should impose limits on Ukraine’s armed forces or block its path to NATO membership. She also emphasised that “Ukraine’s security is Europe’s security.”

Will other countries help secure any ceasefire?

A 35-nation group known as the Coalition of the Willing has pledged to guarantee any eventual ceasefire. Around 20 countries have expressed readiness to form a post-ceasefire reassurance force that would train Ukrainian troops and provide air and maritime support. This structure depends on US involvement, although Trump has not explicitly committed to deploying American forces.

What political and military pressures shape the negotiations?

Both Ukraine and Russia are exhausted after almost four years of war, though for different reasons. Ukraine continues to face missile and drone attacks on cities and infrastructure, and Zelenskyy is dealing with domestic political troubles, including a corruption scandal. Russia has suffered massive casualties and is under pressure from sanctions, although it continues slow and costly advances on the battlefield. European officials argue Russia cannot sustain its war effort indefinitely. The process also faces complications from political tensions in the US and the leaked call in which Witkoff appeared to advise Ushakov on strategy.

How fragile is the peace process?

The talks remain delicate. Russia has not formally received the revised plan. Europe insists on being part of the final agreement. The United States is still adjusting its proposal. Ukraine is under pressure but unwilling to accept key concessions. And analysts warn that Moscow may stall in hopes of gaining more on the battlefield. As one expert put it, “This could just be a real mess. The Russians don’t feel any pressure... The pressure’s all on Zelenskyy.”

Key positions shaping the negotiations

• Ukraine rejects limits on its armed forces, rejects territorial concessions before a ceasefire, and insists NATO membership must remain possible

• United States says a deal is “very close” and continues refining the proposal

• Russia sees “positive aspects” but says many issues require deeper analysis and has not formally received the revised draft

• European Union insists on Ukraine’s security guarantees and rejects any constraints on Ukraine’s army or NATO aspirations

• Coalition of the Willing prepares post-ceasefire military reassurance measures

• Risks include war fatigue, slow battlefield progress, domestic pressures, and the absence of an agreed final text.

- with inputs from AFP and AP