Typhoon Paolo (Matmo): New threat looms over the Philippines

Manila: As the Philippines recovers from a barrage of storms, residents in northern Luzon are bracing for yet another tropical cyclone. 

Tropical Storm Paolo, the 16th storm to enter the country’s area of responsibility (PAR) in 2025, formed east of Catanduanes on October 1 and has already begun intensifying as it barrels westward.

Positioned approximately 705 km east of Infanta, Quezon, the storm is forecast to strengthen into a severe tropical storm by early October 3.

It could even reach typhoon status before making landfall.

Evacuations are underway in vulnerable northern barangays, and local governments are stockpiling relief goods. 

PAGASA urges residents to stay updated via official channels and avoid flood-prone areas, emphasising that even a slight track deviation could amplify impacts. 

Severe tropical storm

According to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), Paolo — internationally known as Tropical Storm Matmo — was packing maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h with gusts up to 80 km/h as of early October 2, moving west-northwestward at 20 km/h (12 mph). 

PAGASA projects Paolo to hit Isabela or northern Aurora in northern Luzon on Friday morning or afternoon, October 3, crossing the landmass before emerging over the West Philippine Sea by afternoon. 

Threat: heavy rainfall, strong winds, storm surges

A southward shift in its track remains possible, influenced by a high-pressure area to the north, but the core threat remains heavy rainfall, strong winds, and potential storm surges along the eastern seaboard. 

Wind Signal No. 1 is currently hoisted over 22 provinces, including Catanduanes, the eastern sections of Quezon, and parts of Samar, with signals expected to escalate to No. 3 or even No. 4 (gale-force winds up to 185 km/h) in worst-case scenarios. 

Rainfall forecasts are dire

up to 200 mm of heavy to intense rain in Isabela, Quirino, and Nueva Vizcaya from October 2 evening through October 3, raising flood and landslide risks in already saturated areas. 

Storm surges of up to 2 meters could batter low-lying coastal zones in Quezon, Catanduanes, and Sorsogon.

This comes mere weeks after a trio of storms hammered the archipelago in September, leaving communities weary but resilient.

Paolo is expected to exit the PAR by October 4 morning, potentially heading toward Guangdong Province in China, but its Philippine leg could still evolve rapidly.