Caste factor can tilt scales in Vidarbha

It is back to basics for all political parties campaigning for the October 13 state assembly elections since the caste factor is likely to play a crucial role in the poll outcome.

Vidarbha may send the largest number of legislators, a total of 66, to the legislative assembly but gets little in terms of development projects and considered to be backward.

The farmer in rural areas continues to suffer due to lack of rains for the last four years, but the towns and cities here look better off than the rest of Maharashtra.

For example, Nagpur, the second most important city of Maharashtra in the Vidarbha region, has transformed for the better from a chaotic, dirty city just a few years back.

Today, both Congress and BJP want to take the credit for the better roads, flyovers that ease traffic going into old areas like Sitabuldi, improved water supply, modern buildings for offices, hotels, banks, shopping malls and the impressive beautification schemes.

"All the development that you see is because of the work done by the Cong-ress-Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) government," says Sunil More, a Cong-ress activist.

But Nitin Gadkari, ex-minister of Public Works Department from the BJP, stresses his party has brought about development. Despite Gadkari's efforts, it has to be seen which way Nagpurians decide. And in the rural areas, the caste issue still reigns.

The Congress and NCP performed miserably in the Lok Sabha elections because they gave tickets without taking caste into consideration as they normally do.

At least 70 per cent of the population of Vidarbha is from the Kunbi, Teli and Koli community who did not figure among the parliamentary candidates.

That is why the Congress and NCP lost 10 out of 11 parliamentary seats in this long-held Congress bastion, Bhupinder Ghanvir, a political analyst, told Gulf News.

This time they have got the act together and have fielded the right candidates from the right caste, with a fervent hope that their strategy works.

The only exception is Akola's five constituencies where not a single Kunbi has been selected by the Congress and the local community is hopping mad over their exclusion and might ensure that the BJP-Sena alliance gets the vote.

This apart, the Congress-NCP strategy is likely to work despite the numerous rebels in the fray. Congress insiders reveal that many of the rebels are not only strong enough to win the elections but are expected to rejoin the parent party.

If some think that the Congress-NCP will make a headway, especially with the election rallies of Congress President Sonia Gandhi drawing tremendous crowds, there are also apprehensions that the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Samajwadi Party will eat into the Dalit and Muslim votes respectively.

Dalits form 25 per cent and Muslims 10 per cent of Vidarbha's voters and even if a portion of these votes, which normally went to the Congress, were diverted, the Congress-NCP's chances could go down.

If the Congress has learnt from its mistakes, the BJP, too, is banking on the caste factor.

There is no interest in the elections, especially in the rural areas where people are still reeling under the effect of the drought.

There has been a 40 per cent reduction in the rainfall and that is a substantial fall for the farmer many of who feel this drought is worse than the infamous 1973 drought when thousands perished.

Of Vidarbha's 66 seats, the Congress is contesting in 49 seats, NCP 15, Republican Party of India two in whilst the BJP is fighting in 38 seats, Sena 25 Shetkari Sanghatna two and Vidarbha Samiti one.

Of the two divisions of Vidarbha, the Congress-NCP in the Nagpur division is likely to get two thirds of the 33 seats and one third of votes in Amravati division. Expectations for the Congress-NCP and its allies could work out to 33-35 seats.

The rest would be shared between the Shiv Sena and BJP, though there are certain riders considering the Sena's campaign is lack lustre and this could affect both parties.