2016 Republican pack has no breakout candidate yet

Washington: Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush may have money and name recognition, but voter enthusiasm for Senators Rand Paul and Marco Rubio and Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker is fuelling a wide-open contest in New Hampshire, nine months before the state’s first-in-the-nation presidential primary.

More likely Republican primary voters in a new Bloomberg Politics/Saint Anselm New Hampshire Poll said they had either a “very favourable” or “somewhat favourable” opinion of Paul than any other GOP contender, 62 per cent. He’s followed by Rubio at 60 per cent, Bush at 59 per cent, and Walker and Texas Senator Ted Cruz at 54 per cent. Rubio’s popularity with New Hampshire primary voters represents a surge, up from 52 per cent in February, suggesting a good bounce off of hisformal entry into the race last month.

Bush has the highest unfavourable rating from likely Republican primary voters among the party’s leading contenders, with 35 per cent saying they had either “somewhat unfavourable” or “very unfavourable” opinions of him. Paul’s unfavourable rating is 27 per cent among primary voters, while Rubio’s is 18 per cent and Walker’s is only 14 per cent.

Regardless of who wins the primary, the general election may pose problems for Republicans in New Hampshire. No Republican has a higher favorability rating among likely general-election voters than Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton, who stands at 46 per cent.

The poll, conducted May 2-6 by Washington-based Purple Insights, found that the four leading Republican candidates are neck and neck: Paul and Walker each were the first choice of 12 per cent of likely GOP primary voters, while Bush and Rubio took 11 per cent. While Cruz scored a high favourable mark, he was the first choice of just 6 per cent of GOP primary voters.

“This is incredibly fluid, and all of these underlying numbers point to that fluidity,” said Purple Insights’ Doug Usher.

“It’s four people, all at about the same level, with no clear front-runner,” Usher said. “So the next question: Is one of them better liked? And the answer is, there are three of them who are better liked: Paul, Walker, and Rubio,” when their unfavourable ratings and the intensity of voters’ favourable feelings toward them are taken into account.

When only the “very favourable” category is measured among likely Republican primary voters, Walker leads with 25 per cent, followed by Rubio at 24 per cent, Paul at 22 per cent, and Bush, Cruz, and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson at 19 per cent. Usher said Bush’s perceived fund-raising advantage may even out the dynamic to some degree.

“Jeb’s got the money, and these folks have popularity. If you’re Jeb and you look at these numbers, you’re thinking, ‘I’ve got to bolster my strength, and I’ve got to bring them down a peg.’”

Among likely general-election voters, Paul enjoys the highest favorability rating of the Republican contenders, with 40 per cent expressing either “very favourable” or “somewhat favourable” opinions of him. Rubio and Bush follow, at 37 per cent. Behind them are former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, at 34 per cent; New Jersey Governor Chris Christie at 32 per cent; Cruz at 31 per cent; and Walker at 30 per cent.

Many Republicans — including Paul and Bush — have higher unfavourable ratings than favorables among likely general- election voters.

Bush’s unfavourable rating among likely general-election voters — 53 per cent — is the highest of the four leading Republicans. Only businessman and TV personality Donald Trump and Christie had worse unfavorables, at 64 per cent and 54 per cent respectively.

Among independent voters — a barometer of general-election dynamics — Paul again enjoys an advantage among the four leading Republicans, with a favourable-to-unfavourable ratio of 44 per cent to 39 per cent. Rubio also is in positive territory, 36 per cent to 32 per cent. Walker gets a 27 per cent favourable rating from independents and a 29 per cent unfavourable rating, while Bush’s rating is 38 per cent favourable to 51 per cent unfavourable.

Underscoring the fluidity of the race, the poll found that the Republican presidential hopefuls have yet to distinguish themselves from one another when it comes to specific leadership traits.

Likely Republican primary voters were asked which of five candidates — Bush, Cruz, Paul, Rubio, and Walker — were best described by the phrase “cares about people like you.” Nearly half of the respondents didn’t pick a specific candidate. Among the individual candidates, Walker fared best, at 15 per cent.

Similar results for other questions on leadership, honesty, values, and vision suggest that all five have room to grow as the state’s voters get to know more about them.

Les McKechnie, 68, of Freedom, N.H., a retired sales engineer and Army colonel who responded to the poll, said Rubio is his leading choice because “he’s young; he’s got new ideas.” But in a reflection of just how much opinions can change, McKechnie jokingly added: “That was last week.”

“You never know what’s going to happen,” he said. “We’re so far away from the ultimate determination.”

The poll included 500 general-election voters as well as oversamples to have 400 Republican primary voters and 400 Democratic primary voters. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points on general-election questions and plus or minus 4.9 percentage points on primary-election questions. The margin of error in subgroups such as independents voting in the general election may be higher.