US midterms explained: What’s at stake for Trump?

Donald Trump is not standing for election in November. But millions of Americans will help decide how much freedom he has to pursue his agenda during his final two years in the White House.

The November 3 midterm elections will determine control of Congress, potentially giving the president continued Republican backing or handing Democrats the power to block legislation and investigate his administration.

Voters will also choose governors, state lawmakers and other officials whose decisions affect everyday life.

Here is how the elections work, who can vote and what the results could mean.

What are the midterm elections?

They are elections held halfway through a president’s four-year term.

Americans elect members of Congress every two years. When those elections fall between presidential contests, they are called midterms.

Trump began his second term in January 2025. These elections therefore fall roughly halfway between his return to office and the next presidential election in November 2028.

Although the president is not on the ballot, midterms are widely treated as a verdict on the administration’s performance.

When does voting take place?

Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

However, voting is not confined to that day. Depending on state rules, eligible voters can cast ballots early in person or vote by mail.

Registration deadlines, identification requirements, polling hours and deadlines for returning postal ballots vary by state.

What is being elected?

All 435 voting seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the Senate’s 100 seats are being contested.

Voters will also elect governors in many states, members of state legislatures and numerous local officials. Some ballots include referendums on policies or proposed changes to state constitutions.

There is no single nationwide ballot: the contests voters see depend on where they live.

What is Congress?

Congress is the lawmaking branch of the US federal government. It consists of the House of Representatives and the Senate.

Both chambers must normally approve the same text before legislation goes to the president.

Congress also controls federal taxation and spending and scrutinises the executive branch.

Unlike a parliamentary system, the US does not require the president’s party to hold a legislative majority for the president to remain in office.

How are the House and Senate different?

House members represent individual congressional districts and serve two-year terms. States with larger populations have more representatives.

Senators represent entire states. Every state has two senators, regardless of population, and senators normally serve six-year terms.

Their terms are staggered, so roughly one-third of Senate seats are contested every two years. This year’s total of 35 includes special elections to fill the remainder of terms left vacant.

The Senate also confirms presidential nominees, including federal judges and Cabinet officials. The House elects its Speaker, who leads the chamber.

Who can vote?

Generally, US citizens who are at least 18 on Election Day, meet state residency requirements and satisfy applicable registration rules can vote.

Naturalised citizens have the same voting rights as citizens born in the United States. Eligible citizens living overseas can also vote through absentee procedures.

Non-citizens, including permanent residents holding green cards, cannot vote in federal elections.

Rules affecting people with felony convictions vary by state. Voting is voluntary.

Do voters choose between Trump and a Democratic challenger?

No. There is no presidential contest this year.

Voters choose candidates for the offices listed on their ballots. They can support candidates from different parties in different races.

The main battle for congressional control is between Republicans and Democrats, although independents and smaller parties also contest elections.

Does the Electoral College play a role?

No. The Electoral College is used to elect the president and vice-president.

House elections are decided district by district, while Senate elections are statewide. State rules govern how winners are determined, including any runoff or ranked-choice procedures.

Control of Congress depends on seats won, rather than the combined nationwide vote for each party.

Who controls Congress now?

Republicans hold both chambers, but their margins are narrow.

At present, Republicans have 218 House seats, alongside an independent who votes with them. With all 435 seats filled, 218 constitutes a majority.

In the Senate, Republicans hold 53 seats. Democrats and the independents aligned with them hold the remaining 47.

Democrats therefore need a net gain of four Senate seats to reach 51.

Why would Democrats need 51 Senate seats?

Because Vice-President JD Vance, a Republican, can break tied Senate votes.

A 50-50 split would therefore leave Republicans with the decisive tie-breaking advantage. Democrats need 51 seats, including allied independents, to overcome that.

The vice-president has no equivalent tie-breaking vote in the House.

What happens if Republicans retain both chambers?

Trump would retain the most favourable congressional conditions for advancing his programme.

Republican leaders could continue prioritising his legislative proposals, while a Republican Senate would generally provide a more supportive route for his nominees.

However, unified party control does not guarantee success. Internal disagreements can derail legislation, particularly when majorities are small.

Most Senate legislation also faces a procedural hurdle: ending a filibuster normally requires 60 votes. Certain measures, including qualifying budget legislation, can pass through procedures that avoid that threshold.

What if Democrats win only the House?

They could block legislation requiring House approval and gain control of its leadership, committees and legislative timetable.

They could also investigate the administration, hold hearings and issue subpoenas through the relevant congressional procedures.

Republicans would still control the Senate, including its role in confirming presidential nominees. Democrats cannot not enact their own programme simply by winning the House.

What if Democrats win only the Senate?

They could block legislation and gain substantial influence over presidential appointments.

A Democratic Senate could reject or delay nominees for Cabinet positions and federal judgeships, including a Supreme Court nomination if a vacancy arose.

It could also conduct investigations through Senate committees.

Republican control of the House would still constrain Democratic legislation.

What if Democrats win both chambers?

Trump would face a much stronger congressional check.

Democrats could set legislative priorities, demand concessions in spending negotiations and conduct investigations across both chambers.

But Trump would remain president and retain the power to veto legislation. Overriding a veto requires a two-thirds vote in each chamber, a much higher threshold than a simple majority.

Democratic control would therefore increase their bargaining power without giving them unrestricted control over federal policy.

Could losing the midterms remove Trump from office?

No. Losing congressional seats does not end a president’s term or trigger a new presidential election.

Trump’s term is scheduled to end on January 20, 2029.

A midterm defeat could weaken his political authority and make governing harder, but it would not itself remove him.

Could Democrats impeach him?

A Democratic-controlled House could pursue impeachment if it chose to do so and secured the necessary majority.

Impeachment means bringing formal constitutional charges. It does not itself remove a president.

The Senate conducts the trial, and conviction requires two-thirds of senators present. If all 100 participated, that would mean 67 votes.

Consequently, even a narrow Democratic Senate majority would be far short of the votes needed to remove Trump without substantial Republican support.

Could Trump govern without Congress?

He would retain significant executive powers, including directing federal agencies and issuing executive orders within constitutional and statutory limits.

He would also retain considerable authority in diplomacy and national security.

However, executive orders cannot simply replace legislation or override the Constitution. Courts can review executive action, and Congress retains important powers over funding and the law.

An opposition Congress could therefore obstruct parts of his programme without bringing the presidency to a halt.

Could the results cause a government shutdown?

Not directly. But divided government could make funding negotiations more difficult.

Congress must approve funding legislation, which normally requires the president’s signature. If funding expires without an agreement, affected federal operations can shut down.

A shutdown is different from a dispute over the debt ceiling, which concerns the government’s borrowing authority.

Neither outcome is inevitable after the election.

Which issues are shaping the campaign?

Affordability dominates the campaign: groceries, housing, energy, healthcare and borrowing costs.

Five major themes for the campaign are: the economy, the Iran war, immigration, government ethics and artificial intelligence.

The war has linked foreign policy to household costs through higher energy prices. Tariffs are another dividing line, with opponents blaming them for higher prices and the administration arguing they protect American industry.

On immigration, Republicans emphasise stronger enforcement, while critics challenge deportation practices and aggressive operations.

Concerns about artificial intelligence include jobs, safety and the electricity and water demands of data centres. Healthcare and other social issues remain important to particular voter groups.

Why do a handful of races attract so much attention?

Many districts and states reliably favour one party. Competitive contests can therefore determine congressional control.

District boundaries also matter. Redrawing them to favour a party, commonly called gerrymandering, can affect the House battlefield.

That helps explain why a party’s national popularity does not translate neatly into its share of seats.

Do presidents usually lose ground in midterms?

The president’s party has often lost House seats, although there are exceptions.

Voters dissatisfied with the administration may be especially motivated, while some presidential supporters stay home.

However, historical patterns and opinion polls cannot determine the result. Candidate quality, turnout, local issues and the distribution of competitive seats all matter.

When will the results be known?

Some winners may become clear on election night. Close contests can take days or longer as officials count eligible ballots and complete required checks.

Recounts, legal challenges or runoffs can delay particular outcomes.

Media projections are separate from official certification. If congressional control rests on a few close races, the overall result may remain uncertain.

When does the new Congress take office?

The new congressional terms begin on January 3, 2027.

Until then, the existing Congress remains in office and may meet after the election in what is commonly called a lame-duck session.

That interval can still produce important legislation and negotiations.

What does this mean for the 2028 presidential election?

The results will shape arguments about which party has momentum and which candidates can win.

Governors and senators may emerge with stronger national profiles. Trump could also influence the Republican succession through endorsements and his relationship with the party’s voters.

But the midterms do not choose either party’s next presidential nominee.

Under the Constitution’s 22nd Amendment, nobody can be elected president more than twice. Having won in 2016 and 2024, Trump is barred from being elected again under the current Constitution.

- With inputs from AFP