'Extinction-level event' for Republicans: RIP MAGA? Stunned US right contemplates life after Trump

Has MAGA fever finally broken? Will the American right shed Donald Trump's populist ideology and return to more traditional conservatism?

After a resounding defeat in midterm elections that were all about one man, many Republicans on Wednesday are questioning the party's future — and the role, if any, of President Trump in shaping it.

The Wall Street Journal, whose opinion pages are the standard-bearer of the establishment right, has demanded "soul-searching" and called for a break with the ultranationalist, identity-based rhetoric that fueled the octogenarian's rise to power. 

"Tariffs and mass deportation are no substitute for rising real incomes. Playing to the bro MAGA base is no substitute for persuading Hispanics, independents and suburban swing voters who abandoned the party on Tuesday," the Journal's editorial board wrote Wednesday morning.

'Still your president'

The White House was in a less reflective mood.

Its first X post Wednesday featured a stern-looking Trump with the words "Trump is still your president" superimposed on it — a reminder he can remain in office until January 2029.

But the American political cycle is relentless.

Wednesday effectively marks the kickoff of the 2028 campaign, which will culminate in a vote on Trump's successor.

And in this race, Trump is out for good, since the US Constitution bars him from seeking a third term.

There was no plausible scenario in which Trump would have emerged from the midterms in a stronger position.

But the absolute thrashing Republicans took Tuesday night — far outpacing all but the most optimistic scenarios for Democrats — has accelerated Trump's loss of power.

Eyes on 2028

In an essay-length X post Wednesday, Vice President JD Vance — a likely 2028 White House contender — took care to avoid confrontation with his boss. 

"The reason we lost is the war," Vance wrote, immediately adding: "The president himself said so last night."

That is not entirely true. Trump only partially blamed the Middle East conflict for the defeat. He also said Republicans fielded poor candidates.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis described an "extinction-level event" for Republicans and thinks they may have to wait until 2032 to regain control of Congress.

The party "needs to reclaim our Reagan principles," Republican lawmaker Don Bacon wrote on X. "Voters rejected populism, chaos, Putin and tariffs."

Former congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, a far-right figure who now fiercely and publicly opposes the president, said, "If the GOP wants any chance in the future, it will have to kick Donald Trump out of the party."

"Republicans need to get back to basics," Matthew Boyle, a leading figure at far-right news site Breitbart, wrote on X.

"No more endless wars... When it comes to the economy, the number one issue, pursue policies that help ordinary people not special interests," he added. "And be sane with immigration enforcement."

Criticism, not by name

But for now, the criticism remains relatively muted. Few conservative figures, whether moderate or radical, have attacked Trump by name.

The Republican Party has, after all, tied its fate entirely to the billionaire since 2016.

"The big question is, are some of these Republican leaders in the House and Senate going to distance themselves from Trump?" Amy Dacey, a former Democratic official who is now an expert at American University, told AFP.

The same goes for far-right influencers, whose audiences — and incomes — have tracked Trump's popularity.

A stunning loss dings influence, "but this is not going to, in any way, eradicate some people who are affiliated with some of the MAGA movement," Dacey added.

Some of MAGA's digital foot soldiers have tried to redirect the reckoning.

"Great work, neocons," Jack Posobiec wrote sarcastically on X, referring to a Republican faction known for interventionist foreign policy and a hawkish stance against Iran.

But it may only be a matter of time before the break becomes definitive.

Former congressman Bob Good said on the same platform: "Gotta start by acknowledging that Trump was and is the problem. Quietly whispering it won't do it."