UAE weather forecast July 2026: The factor that could push heat higher, explained

Dubai: The UAE wakes up to July this morning with the heat already in place. According to the National Centre of Meteorology (NCM) and AccuWeather, the month ahead will bring intense daytime heat, warm nights and climbing humidity, continuing a pattern that has built steadily through June.

NCM: El Niño could push temperatures higher

The NCM has forecast a 98 per cent probability that El Niño conditions will prevail between July and November 2026. The centre said temperatures and rainfall during this period are likely to be near to above seasonal averages.

El Niño is a periodic warming of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. For the UAE, the NCM has not predicted a specific outcome, but the centre has noted that historical El Niño episodes have been associated with weaker northwesterly winds, which usually help cool the Gulf in summer. If that pattern repeats, residents could feel less relief from sea breezes this July.

Heading into the month, the NCM’s daily bulletins have already shown a clear trend. In late June, the centre forecast maximum temperatures of up to 48°C in inland areas, with humid conditions overnight and a chance of coastal fog. July is expected to continue, and potentially intensify, this pattern.

AccuWeather: City by city

AccuWeather’s monthly outlook gives a more detailed breakdown of what each emirate can expect.

Dubai: Daily highs are forecast to range from 39°C to 44°C, with an average high of 41°C. Overnight lows are expected to average 32°C, rarely dropping much below 31°C.

Abu Dhabi: Highs are forecast between 39°C and 43°C, averaging 41°C. Lows are expected to average 29°C.

Al Ain: AccuWeather’s figures show a comparatively lower range for the inland city, with highs forecast between 34°C and 37°C and an average high of 36°C. This is notably cooler than Al Ain’s typical July reputation as one of the UAE’s hottest cities.

Sharjah: AccuWeather’s historical averages for the surrounding dates point to highs near 41°C and lows around 26°C, broadly in line with Dubai.

For the other northern emirates, including Ras Al Khaimah and Fujairah, NCM bulletins from late June recorded maximum temperatures between 35°C and 42°C nationally, with the east coast seeing comparatively milder conditions and occasional light rain over the Fujairah mountains.

Humidity and how it will feel

Heat alone does not tell the full story. AccuWeather’s RealFeel data, which factors in humidity, has consistently shown perceived temperatures running several degrees above the actual reading in coastal cities. In Dubai, current RealFeel readings have reached as high as 45°C against an actual temperature in the high 30s. In Abu Dhabi, RealFeel has reached the mid-40s under similar conditions.

The NCM has flagged humid conditions overnight as a recurring feature heading into July, particularly along the coast, with an increased likelihood of fog or mist in the early morning.