Shahbaz's future role dominates political scene

The election of Shahbaz Sharif to the leadership of the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz group), coupled with rumours that with or without government consent, he will soon return to the country, has had a huge impact on the political scenario in the country.

Even the developments within the PML Quaid-e-Azam (PML-QA), now split into two factions, have been largely ignored as attention focuses on the PML-N.

With the weakening of the PML-QA following the split, the PML-N now suddenly seems to be the strongest of the PML factions and is seen as a front-runner in the general elections in just over two months' time.

Though the military regime continues to insist Shahbaz will not be allowed back, with Interior Minister Moinuddin Haider saying on Monday that under the terms of the 1999 exile deal, his return is not permitted, few are willing to fully believe this.

"We are in no doubt that Shahbaz Sharif will come back and lead his party in the polls. There is nothing to prevent him," said Khwaja Saad Rafique, a prominent PML-N leader from Lahore.

The regime has also conceded that since he is not a convict, there is no restriction on Shahbaz holding party office, unlike the case with PPP chief Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif.

Shahbaz, speaking to several newsmen from Jeddah, seems to be taking a renewed interest in party affairs.

The "interests of the party are central to my decisions," he said. "Insha Allah, we shall be in our country before long, and no one can keep me away now."

These words are seen as the clearest message so far from Shahbaz that he intends to return home.

Some of those close to Shahbaz are already saying he will be back by August 14, Pakistan's Independence Day, and that orders are soon to be issued to organise a large PML-N rally on that day.

"That will be the turning point for the party," said one PML-N source.

He also felt that to sort out the technical difficulties, Shahbaz would be granted a pardon, enabling him to come back. The return of Shahbaz would mean another huge blow for Mian Azhar.

Azhar has already faced a major rift in his party, with some of its members now likely to drift away to the faction created by Ejaz-ul-Haq.

Though this number is likely to remain small, as reflected in the low votes polled by Ejaz in his contest for party leadership, even this will damage the PML-QA.

"Mian Azhar is naturally anxious that Shahbaz will be back, and will present him with a huge challenge," said one PML-QA source.