Russia unlikely barrier to attack

U.S. administration officials believe Russia is unlikely to stand in the way of a U.S.-led military operation against Saddam Hussain if the Iraqi president continues to refuse United Nations demands to abandon his weapons of mass destruction.

Russian President Vladimir Putin would prefer a peaceful solution, but if the United States concludes Hussain must go, Putin is not expected to protest or use Russia's veto in the UN Security Council, say several U.S. officials who have been involved in extensive discussions with Moscow.

Russia has significant business dealings with Saddam's government, particularly in the oil industry, that would be imperiled by a change of government in Baghdad.

Sensing an increasing U.S. willingness to challenge Saddam and occupy Iraq afterward, Russian officials and business executives have been seeking assurances that their interests will be respected if the Americans move in.

Putin himself publicly opened a door to a shift last week, when he retreated from his government's previous assertions that force could not be justified. He said in Kiev that if Iraq creates problems for UN inspectors, Russia could reach agreement with the United States on stronger measures that they declined to specify.

Russia occupies a key position in the administration's efforts to win UN approval for a potential use of force. As one of the five permanent Security Council members, Russia can veto any resolution. With the council and Europe divided about the next steps to take, Moscow's influence could prove valuable to the side able to claim it.

U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell will go to the Security Council today to present the U.S. case against Saddam, whom the Americans accuse of hiding chemical and biological weapons in defiance of the United Nations.

The administration, which also contends Iraq supports international terrorism and is developing nuclear weapons, is considering what form of UN action to seek.

The Russian position on the issue is motivated largely by pragmatism that has little to do with Saddam and his weapons, policymakers and analysts believe. Putin wants to preserve a solid relationship with President Bush and the West while focusing on developing Russia's troubled economy.

At key moments in the past two years, when presented with a significant policy choice he disliked, Putin has swallowed his misgivings and moved on. That was true when the Bush administration pulled out of the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, negotiated a new 2002 deal on long-range nuclear weapons and worked to expand the Nato alliance.

Putin, who has no affection for Saddam, also wants to avoid being on the wrong side of events if the Iraqi leader falls and the Americans are making key decisions for Iraq during the postwar period.

"Putin is no fool. He has the measure of George Bush. He understands this president is as serious as one could be" about Iraq, said a senior U.S. official who described Putin's warning to Iraq last week as "not an accident."

The United States is also preparing evidence for Putin that terrorists active in Chechnya and the rugged Pankisi Gorge in neighbouring Georgia have spent time in Iraq and received support from Baghdad, said another senior U.S. official.

This official speculated that the terrorist connection could prove more persuasive to Putin, who is intensely interested in Chechnya, than details of Iraq's weapons programmes.

In discussions initiated last year, Russian officials and business leaders have made clear to the Bush administration that their primary concern in an Iraqi endgame is financial.

Russia has extensive energy interests in Iraq, and a series of contracts are at stake. The Kremlin, which oversees an economy dependent on oil revenue, is also worried that a rejuvenated Iraqi oil industry would pump so much oil that world prices would drop below the $18 a barrel the Russians say they need to remain solvent.

In addition, heavily indebted Iraq owes Russia $8 billion - money the Russians would love to collect if Iraq's economy turns around.

U.S. officials have told the Russians that they can offer no promises of special treatment. They note that other countries have ambitions in Iraq and similar claims on postwar revenue, and that the demands on Iraq's oil profits for reconstruction and social service projects will be vast.

The administration is pledging to the Russians an "equal opportunity approach" to Iraqi oil development and reporting that Iraqis ultimately will be responsible for deciding what happens in their own industry, a senior State Department official said.

The Russians "wanted to make sure we would respect their interests," said another official, who said the U.S. reply was designed to be encouraging. "We're not going to burn them and I think they appreciate this."