Overwhelming logic puts Pakistan first

Most Pakistanis have been aware since Agra that Pervez Musharraf's boots were meant for walking on the world stage.

The man who leads the country and the moment have come together seamlessly in a crisis, comfortable with his destiny and having the inherent ability to seize opportunity whenever and in whichever form it comes.

Given a Hobson's Choice, – damned if he will, damned if he won't – the Pakistani leader went with his gut instinct. Pervez Musharraf, General of the Army, President by default, but on merit Chief of Army Staff (COAS) and Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee (JCSC), did not vacillate did not drag his feet as he followed Richard Nixon's advice in not "debating a point to death".
With the country facing its gravest crisis since 1971, Musharraf took the hard but unpopular road in doing what is morally right. The recent terrorist attack in the U.S. cannot be justified by any civilised society.

Anybody who does so qualifies for the madhouse.

The sound of a bullet is a great equaliser, it separates the men from the boys. The crisis of the magnitude that Pakistan is facing is the acid test of the character of our leadership. Faced with the rank injustices of the Radcliffe Award in 1947, the lawyer within our Quaid, Mohammed Ali Jinnah urged a legal battle. Choosing the race against time (now or never!) he went against the thrust of his personality and training to accept a "truncated, moth-eaten Pakistan" rather than no Pakistan at all. Musharraf has put at stake his person, his reputation and credibility rather than put the nation to unlimited risk.

The media propaganda has been so intense, any indecision or delay would have had long term adverse consequences for our very existence as a nation. Musharraf decided that notwithstanding the emotional display in the streets, overwhelming logic demanded that Pakistan came first.

Going against terrorism is contrary to vocal public perception, not only in the streets but in some of the drawing rooms of the elite and educated. Musharaf has taken a calculated risk with courage.

An uncompromising fighter against the Russian occupation of Afghanistan, wealthy Osama bin Laden may have captivated the public imagination but what manner of man is ready to bring misery to millions so that he himself can survive? Even now hundreds of thousands of apprehensive Afghans, mainly women and children, are walking in many columns towards safety in Pakistan.

The Taliban are being very loyal to him. But is he being loyal to the hapless Afghans? Circumstantial evidence seems to be building into a solid case against bin Laden. While there is no "smoking gun" making the case watertight, Osama is a self-confessed terrorist who has to be brought to justice. The long years of war have denuded Afghanistan virtually of all its assets and a fair amount of its population.

Callous though it may seem, the Afghans are conditioned to it. Outsiders have no idea of the privations such international isolation would bring. Pakistan has everything to lose in every sense of the word. Why should we render this sacrifice?

The demands the U.S. government made of Pakistan were unambiguous – are you with the U.S.A. or not? If the answer is "yes" then share intelligence information about Afghanistan and Osama bin Laden, allow free use of airspace, block fuel supplies to Afghanistan and provide such logistics support for any impending military operation an "as required basis".

An outright "no" would have meant that Pakistan was aligned with Afghanistan against the U.S. That would have been not only illogical but catastrophic. While the great silent majority of Pakistanis are fond of Americans, they have been extremely disappointed with the U.S.; acclaiming Pakistan at one time as the cornerstone of U.S. policy in the region, the U.S. had abandoned Pakistan.

To add insult to assumed injury, the U.S. turned to India, long opposed to the U.S. on all counts till lately, as its principal ally and partner in the region, militarily and politically, not in any anti-Pakistan alliance but more to contain China.

A "no" answer would have been to Pakistan's eternal detriment. The very first assault – Cruise missiles, air attacks- would have targeted our strategic nuclear assets and India would have loved to be the instrument of our destruction.

Diplomatically Afghanistan is isolated; physically it will be further so when Pakistan's borders with it are closed. Militarily the U.S. can either repeat the 1998 attack by Cruise missiles on known Taliban concentrations and rest areas, or declare Afghanistan a no-fly zone a la Iraq and interdict any air or surface movement by the use of airpower from aircraft carriers in the Gulf and from Pakistan, Tajikistan. It could also establish forward staging bases in Pakistan, Tajikistan, etc., to carry out airmobile operations. With airpower support from a Northern Alliance grand alliance offensive against Kabul, they could attempt a full-fledged ground invasion of Afghanistan with a multi-lateral force.

A history of sorry invaders, – British, Russian – compels military planners to exorcise from their minds any thoughts of a major ground invasion in Afghanistan but a Northern Alliance offensive is definitely on the cards, so as to expel the Taliban from Kabul before winter.

The U.S. does not need tactical nuclear strikes. That is out. Instead, a combination of the first three options is possible i.e. Cruise missiles to knock out any Taliban military potential, combat air patrols night and day over Afghanistan to restrict all movement within the country, even using cluster bombs and fuel air explosives at Taliban concentrations, and lastly, to conduct airmobile "hit and snatch" raids inside Afghanistan using forward logistics bases.

Ormara would be the major naval staging port, at least two or even three logistic bases being established in Balochistan Province a 160-240 kilometres or so from the Afghan Border, most probably well south of Quetta (either Jacobabad and Sibi) or south west of Quetta (between Kharan and Kalat).

The area north of Quetta will be well within Taliban reach as well as being die-hard Jamiat-i-Ulema Islam country. JUI (F) and JUI (S) being the country cousins of the Taliban. The good news is that both the spiritual leaders with maximum nuisance value, Maulana Fazal ur Rehman, JUI (F) and Maulana Samiul Haq, JUI (S) seem to be aligning themselves with the government.

Pakistan has categorically said that it will not commit its forces beyond its borders. In any case, we will have to provide troops for the outer defensive perimeter for the forward bases as well as mobile covering troops between the border and those bases.

Peshawar must be ruled out as a possible base, it has no "stand-off" distance from populated areas but Quetta can be used. The hard flat ground in many areas of South-west Balochistan can be easily and quickly prepared for operations of transport aircraft bringing in troops to marry up helicopters already in position.

Damage control internally is needed to keep militant pro-Afghan elements in check.

The President's speech has gone down well. Even though he speaks far better extempore than from a prepared text, he made some