Letter from Bangalore: Ananth Kumar's appointment a political barometer

The appointment of Ananth Kumar, India's urban development minister, as the president of the Karnataka unit of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has not come as a surprise but appears to be an indicator of assembly elections being advanced to February 2004.

The advancement of elections to the Karnataka legislative assembly from November 2004 to February would largely depend upon several factors, including the performance of the BJP in the elections to the assemblies in four North Indian states.

"His appointment is a clear indicator that the central leadership is considering advancing the elections in Karnataka to February-March next year. Whether it would mean simultaneous elections to the Lok Sabha would be too early to speculate. It all depends upon how the party fares in the assembly polls in November,'' a party functionary said.

In other words, Kumar's task is clearly cut out and, as many believe, is a tough one. The task of building the party with little or no base in many rural parts of the state, is tougher than handling the union urban development ministry, a post in which he would continue.

The challenge he faces is to bring the BJP not just on par with the Congress in the mind of the discerning Karnataka voter but also defeat the current ruling party at the hustings in, possibly, two simultaneous elections.

The Karnataka voter holds the unusual record in electoral history of voting for a regional outfit like the Janata party in the 1984 assembly elections and simultaneously voting for Rajiv Gandhi's Congress to rule India in the Lok Sabha elections.

"It is a difficult job. There is no doubt about that but we need to exploit the current situation by providing an effective opposition to the Congress,'' said a BJP leader on condition of anonymity.

The situation that the BJP is looking at seriously is the state of the Janata Dal factions. The Janata Dal (Secular), headed by former Prime Minister, H.D. Deve Gowda, is one but its efforts to forge unity with the Janata Dal (United) has led to the division of that party into, practically, three parts.

There is an All India Progressive Janata Dal (AIPJD), headed by former chief minister, S.R. Bommai, with most of the prominent leaders like C. Byre Gowda, B. Somasekhar, M.P. Prakash and others in it.

There is a Janata Dal (U) headed by N. Tippanna with some firm loyalists of Hegde.

The former minister, P.G. R. Sindhia, is hanging in between these two, tilting towards the JD (U) in an effort to go to the JD(S). And, a new dimension has been added in recent weeks by liquor baron, Vijay Mallya, becoming the president of the Janata Party that is headed by the maverick Subramaniam Swamy.

The confusion among the Janata parivar has been further accentuated with each of the factions, barring Deve Gowda's, insisting that it has the support of Hegde who would take a long time recuperating fully from brain surgery that he underwent in London two months ago.

Hegde's charisma over northern Karnataka districts appears to hold sway even now. In fact, it was because of the unhappy electoral alliance with him that the BJP was able to win seven of the 28 Lok Sabha seats and 44 assembly seats in 1999.

The BJP's performance was in spite of the anti-incumbency factor that came to the fore because of the rule of the Janata Dal government, headed by late J.H. Patel. And, it is precisely this factor that Kumar and his BJP is expected to exploit in the coming months.

"Even in this, it is not going to be easy for him. True, we are horribly divided.

"But the Congress government's performance is not that bad in the urban areas and, with a little focus, on rural development, in the coming months, Kumar's task will become tougher if not anything else,'' said a senior Janata Dal leader.

But, Kumar is not somebody who can be underestimated. His success would depend upon the mistakes that the leadership in the Congress as well as the Janata parivar commit in the coming months.