Gearing up for major battle in Afghanistan

Despite the urgency of the air campaign, 30 days into the war there is no ground battle worth the name except around Mazar-i-Sharif, the capital of Balkh Province.

If bombs of differing lethal value were not falling on Afghanistan with increasing frequency, the "war on terrorism" could well be a phony war. But the battle for Mazar-i-Sharif is one that has begun in earnest.

Once the capital of Afghan Turkmenistan, the loss of this crossroads city of Mazar will be a grievous blow to the Taliban, although not a fatal one. Without occupying Kabul and having the capital city in its grasp, the Opposition can only claim some legitimacy if they have physical possession of Mazar-i-Sharif.

But its capture may invite wholesale Uzbek and Tajik defections from the Taliban ranks.

Domino theory

More importantly, using "the domino theory" as an example, the provinces of Balkh, Samangan, Faryab, Jozejan and Ghowr would link up with the Alliance territories of Kunduz, Baghlan, Takhar, Badakshan, Parvan and Kapisa. In effect, providing the Northern Alliance not only with continuous real estate but giving its government, a legitimacy of sorts.

Literally meaning the "tomb of the saint," the Balkh River makes this city a part of Afghanistan's most fertile regions, producing cotton, grain and fruit.

Once the Soviet Union's chief transit point for trade, Mazar is 56 kilometres south of Termez, a major river port of Uzbekistan on the Amu Darya , the riverine border with Afghanistan.

About 320 kilometres away to the south-east, Kabul is connected by road through the Salang Tunnel, while Herat is about 480 kilometres away to the south-west near the border with Iran.

An extensive and difficult mountain territory, the Alborz Range, lies south and south-west, with a flat desert terrain to the north, east and south of the city.

Populated mainly by the Uzbeks, Mazar's nearly quarter million population has a fair percentage of Tajiks and Hazaras, Pushtuns make up about 10 per cent. The surrounding population is also mainly Uzbek, with a sprinkling of Tajiks to the east and Hazaras (Shias) in strength to the south in Bamiyan Province.

Mostly Uzbeks populate the provinces of Samangam and Baghlan due east, as well to the west in Jozejan and Faryab. Through Kholm a road goes east to Kunduz, Takhar and Badakshan Provinces. A road passes south through Ap Kupruk where fighting is raging to Bamiyan province.

The carpet bombing by B-52s notwithstanding, the Northern Alliance will need close air support to capture Mazar, and before Ramadan this is most unlikely, unless the Taliban decide to abandon the city voluntarily.

One school of thought recommends the U.S. bombing not to stop during Ramadan, as the hiatus would give the Taliban breathing space to rejuvenate militarily.

This premise may be correct but rendering justification by examples of conflict among Muslims during Ramadan as quoted by some Muslim commentators is ludicrous.

Giving "Jang-e-Badar" as an example misses the entire point. In battles of yesteryear, deaths and injuries were mostly confined to combatants, with non-combatants only suffering "collateral damage" unless they had to face what Genghiz Khan did to Bamiyan in slaughtering 150,000 just because his favourite grandson was killed in battle.


Proneto gossip

Prone to gossip, Americans can be hugely misguided by such elements. As it is, anti-Americanism is rampant, a travesty of fact and fairplay when one considers that they can be the most generous people on this earth, very deeply affected by human suffering.

Unlike the rag-tag Taliban, parading daily in their new 'glad rags' north of Kabul are the Northern Alliance's best military commanders and troops, arrayed against Taliban held Mazar-i-Sharif. From the northwest and west , Doulatabad and Chantal, the mercenary Gen Rashid Dostum, and long-time ruler of Mazar is on the outer reaches of the city.

Dostum remained allied to the Soviets during the entire length of the Afghan War but shifted allegiance to Najibullah when the Soviets left, supporting him with a large contingent of his Jumbish-i-Milli militia in Kabul. His troopers behaved badly, indulging in widespread rape and pillage.
Before Najibullah fell, he conveniently switched sides to Ahmad Shah Masood so that despite being a Tajik and in a minority, Masood became the power behind the throne in Afghanistan's interim government.

Dostum soon fell out with Masood, maintaining an uneasy alliance from the safety of his Mazar stronghold. His luck and timing in crossing over to the winner lost out when the Taliban spurned him for his double-dealing over his deputy, General Malek.

Despite all this horrific baggage, Dostum still evokes deep loyalties from within his Uzbek clan. Unlike the other Afghan races, Uzbeks are not divided along sub-tribes. Dostum has today only a shadow of the well-trained force he once commanded, but they are formidable fighters.

Driving north from his base at Yakawlang in Bamiyan Province, Ustad Mahikak, who has strong long-time support from Iran, has been attacking Ap Kupruk with some success. Ap Kupruk has changed hands a couple of times.

Spearheaded by tanks, and helped by Ustad Atta Mohammad's Tajiks, Mahikak's Hazaras drove the Talibaan out last Saturday but were driven out 24 hours later.

Taking control again on Tuesday, the alliance have reportedly moved through Shulgerah towards Mazar. Showing remarkable resilience, the Taliban have kept the road to Herat open despite ex-Governor Herat, Ismail Khan's threatening presence west of Herat.

To hold Mazar-i-Sharif at all costs, the Taliban have their second largest concentration after Kabul – about 10,000-12,000 hardened troops, mainly Uzbeks and Tajiks but with 1,000-1,500 each of Pashtun and Arabs.

Since Uzbeks hate being led by Pashtuns, the Talibaan commanders are mainly Uzbek and Tajik, their morale stiffened by well trained and motivated Arab fighters.

Osama Bin Laden is not physically present but former Soviet paratrooper Uzbek Juma Namangani, hailing from where legendary Mughal ruler Babar is buried in the Ferghana valley in Uzbekistan, and leader of a group closely allied to bin Laden, coordinates with the local commanders.

North of Termez are assembled the best part of two US Mountain Brigades. Possibly the safest area for committing ground troops is the flat desert land between Termez and Mazar-i-Sharif. In fact an armoured push towards Mazar on the Termez axis could happen, with ground attack aircraft and AC-130s clearing a broad swathe of all opposition.

Whether the Taliban elect to fight a pitched urban battle within Mazar or pull their best troops out, while they can, to live to fight another day, will be known in the next few days.

Do the Northern Alliance have any more soldiers with the same motivation as those presently besieging Mazar-i-Sharif? That too, remains to be seen.

Finest fighters

Instead of fighting in built-up areas, they would likely besiege Mazar and work for defections. The Taliban is likely to keep on fighting unless Mullah Umar (or rather Osama Bin Laden) decide t