Cyprus biggest hurdle to Turkey's EU entry

It is becoming increasingly obvious that settling the question of Cyprus is probably the most difficult hurdle Turkey needs to overcome, if it really wants to win sympathetic ears to support its desire to join the European Union at Thursday's summit in Copenhagen.

The Danish capital will play host to what many observers consider as the most important European summit since Nice two years ago, when EU heads of states and prime ministers set the ground rules for enlarging the EU.

As a first application of these new rules, the summit will formally confirm and welcome 10 new members, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, the Slovak Republic and Slovenia, to join the EU by May 2004.

Copenhagen summit is expected to see some heated discussion, with leaders supporting setting a formal date for Turkey to start negotiation over its future EU membership, and those who are opposing the idea.

Among those who are calling to set up arrangements for Turkey to begin negotiations, is Britain's Prime Minister Tony Blair, who carries with him to Copenhagen the weight of the United States administration which declares its full support for Turkey's acceptance in the European club.

On the other side of the argument is, naturally, France's Jacques Chirac. France has always been far more hesitant and argues that it is still "too early" to set a date to begin negotiations.

Recent statements by the former French President Valery Giscard d'Estaing, who is also the chairman of the Convention on the future of Europe, has made the clash in Copenhagen more likely.

Giscard d'Esaing has not only rejected the idea of setting up a date for the negotiation at the summit, but he remarked that admitting Turkey "would put the end of the European Union," arguing that Turkey has "a different culture and way of life."

Giscard's comments have stirred debate across Europe, despite the fact that they contradict the EU official line.

Recognising the uncertainties of the former French president's remarks, Turkey's new and powerful leader, Recep Tayyeb Erdogan, strongly retaliated in an attempt to lessen the impact of these remarks.

He gave a warning that the European Union would fan Muslim anger and perceptions of itself as a "Christian club", if it did not set a firm date for the start of membership talks.

Shrewd campaign

As a result, many European officials have rushed to explain that Giscard d'Estaing's view are not that of the EU's. Some have indicated that his comments, at 76, seemed part of a shrewd campaign to raise his own profile and engrave his name in the history books as the founder of the "New Europe".

In October aristocrat Giscard suggested the EU change its name to the United States of Europe. Earlier, he had proposed an American-style EU secretary of state.

"He wants to be remembered as another Washington" a Whitehall official told me. It was of course, a similar convention chaired by George Washington that established the American states into the United States more than two centuries ago.

These issues have attracted interest and forced many of the big players in the EU to pay more attention and keep an eye on the convention discussions, by raising the standard of their representation at the talks.

Germany appointed its Foreign Minister Joshcka Fischer as its representative, and this was immediately followed by France who appointed its Foreign Minister Dominique de Villepin.

Britain is represented by the former head of the Foreign Office Sir John Kerr, who also holds the key post of secretary-general of the convention. The Welsh Secretary Peter Hain, the former minister of Europe, has also been asked in the recent cabinet reshuffle to keep his seat at the convention.

Now with Turkey's membership talks date looming to top the Copenhagen summit's agenda, French and German leaders have proposed July 1, 2005, for negotiation to begin and Britain has called for an earlier timetable.

The Danish Prime Minister, Anders Rasmussen, whose country's presidency of the EU ends by the new year, has said concerns over human rights abuses still continuing in Turkey should rule out early progress. Denmark does not want to set up a date at all at this summit.

Sensing the seriousness of the unfolding situation, Erdogan launched immediately after the stunning results of Turkey's election last month, his first European charm offensive.

His first port of call in a tour of six European capitals was Greece, Turkey's traditional rival, with two main items on his agenda: The divided island of Cyprus and Turkey's European Union aspirations.

Erdogan, whose Islamist-rooted Justice and Development (AK) Party won a landslide election, and who is banned under Turkish emergency law from being prime minister, also visited Berlin, Dublin, London, Brussels and Strasbourg.

His post has gone instead to his deputy, Abdullah Gul, a respected and well-known figure to the world economic and finance institutions that are detrimental to Turkey's future and stability.

Key supporter

AK leader's talks in Athens were crucial for any further progress over Turkey's membership negotiation. In fact, Greek Prime Minister Costas Simitis has unexpectedly emerged as a key supporter of Turkey's European aspirations.

But this support will not be forthcoming unless Turkey makes a substantial and final move to settle the Cyprus issue and agree to the United Nations peace plan, which was unveiled early last November.

Simitis stressed that an agreement on Cyprus was crucial to Turkey's credibility in its EU ambitions. "I believe a solution for the Cyprus problem will help all issues regarding EU-Turkish relations," he said.

With an EU ready to accept the Greek part of Cyprus as a full member in 2004 if the peace talks fail, and with Greece right of use the veto decisive tool in the EU, Turkey should take note.

The writer is the former president, Foreign Press Association in London.