The Home Stretch: All eyes on Carlton House

It has often been said that when trying to pick the winner for the Derby you would be better off trusting the betting market rather than the conventional guidelines that you would follow — like the horse's reputation, its pedigree, trainer's record or the qualifications of rider.

But what do you do when the market's themselves have been thrust into confusion by some very muddling trial races that would by this time of the year, painted a rather clear picture of the top horse, or horses in some cases, heading to Epsom for England's most famous horse race.

First, we had Frankel, the rock-steady favourite dominating the market from the back end of last year, before his recent Newmarket victory in the Guineas raised severe doubts about his stamina and ability to get the mile and a half at the feared Epsom Downs.

That prompted a re-think and his highly touted stable companion World Domination was installed as the favourite.

Fantastic record

But then he was beaten in the Dante, a race that has a fantastic record of uncovering winners of England's blue riband event, although Workforce bucked the trench when, despite being beaten in the Knavesmire trial he went on to win at Epsom, a year ago.

So now we have a new favourite and what more can we ask of the guiding light that the British betting markets have been over the years to doubtful form-watchers, than to install a horse owned by the Queen at the top of the markets.

In addition, not just a horse but one that is called Carlton House, ostensibly named after the imposing Royal mansion in the St James's district of Westminster which, thanks to the well-publicised Royal Wedding, is more famous now than it ever was despite its historical references.

Popular choice

However, Carlton House is a popular choice. So popular that he is a short-priced 2/1 with bookmakers who exude confidence that this auspicious colt has what it takes to tame the dreaded undulations of the back-straight at Epsom and make light of the disconcerting Tattenham Corner before he storms up the hill to the accompanying roars of ‘Charlton', ‘Charlton', ‘Charton' and claim his place in racing immortality.

Unlike Frankel, Carlton House ticks almost all the boxes heading to Epsom. He is wonderfully bred and should stay, as they say, till the cows come home.

He is on the up and is trained by a master craftsman Sir Michael Stoue, who has a great reputation of preparing horses to win the Derby.

It is believed that over three million people watch the race live on television in the UK while it is also telecast to over 200 countries across the globe.

In addition over 100,000 race-goers from all over the country travel by rail, car or in some cases even helicopter, to watch the historic race with their own two eyes on Derby Day.

They will all be picking one horse to win, will that be Carlton House?

Let's wait and see.