Why Scottie Scheffler will win the 2025 Masters

The Masters is a tournament steeped in tradition and history.

For all its mystique, however, Augusta National does not yield its secrets easily. It’s a course where experience, precision, and recent form combine to separate champions from contenders.

Despite not yet claiming a victory in 2025 - thanks in part to a freak hand injury over Christmas - Scottie Scheffler enters the tournament with the perfect mix of form, skill, and experience. This makes him my pick to slip into the iconic Green Jacket for a third time.

One statistic stands out as a hallmark of recent Masters champions: elite performance in strokes gained tee-to-green (T2G). This metric, which measures a player’s ball-striking and short-game prowess (excluding putting), is the most predictive stat when evaluating success at Augusta.

Since 2010, every Masters winner has entered the tournament with at least 18 strokes gained T2G across their previous four starts. Scheffler not only meets this benchmark but obliterates it, having gained a staggering 31.8 strokes T2G in his last four events - the best in the field.

This dominance is no fluke. Scheffler’s consistency in finding fairways, hitting greens in regulation, and scrambling when necessary, gives him an edge that few can match. It’s the reason why he is World No.1 and has already won two Masters titles.

Course knowledge at Augusta National is also indispensable. It’s a venue where experience isn’t just valuable; it’s essential. You need to know where to put the ball on certain pins and if you miss, you need to miss it in certain spots because there’s some areas around Augusta that can prove to be a nightmare to escape from.

Scheffler has played in five previous Masters, comfortably clearing the three-appearance threshold shared by 21 of the last 26 champions. In those five starts, he has finished inside the top 20 each time, with his last three starts reading 1-T10-1.

Each time has played on the hallowed turf, the American has added to his mental database of how Augusta plays under various conditions, equipping him with the tools needed to navigate its challenges.

Bolstering Scheffler’s case even further is his ranking of sixth on the PGA Tour this season in Strokes Gained: Off The Tee - an objective measure of a golfer's driving ability. With Augusta National famously dubbed a "bomber’s paradise," Scheffler’s prowess with the driver only strengthens his claim to the Green Jacket.

On top of that, he ranks third in Scrambling this season - a crucial skill for saving par when finding trouble, something that can quickly lead to big scores around Augusta. That said, trouble doesn’t find him often, as he also ranks 12th in Greens in Regulation -critical for setting up birdie opportunities on the course’s notoriously slick greens.

The challenge

While Rory McIlroy and Collin Morikawa are strong contenders, neither seems as poised as Scheffler heading into the year’s first Major Championship. McIlroy, in arguably the best pre-Masters form of his career, has struggled with the unique pressures of Augusta while chasing the elusive career Grand Slam. Meanwhile, Morikawa, a phenomenal ball-striker, doesn’t quite match Scheffler’s power and distance off the tee - key factors at Augusta.

Beyond the strength of the field trying to wrestle the Green Jacket away from Scheffler, history also poses a significant challenge. Only three players - Jack Nicklaus (1965-1966), Nick Faldo (1989-1990), and Tiger Woods (2001-2002) - have successfully defended their Masters title. It’s a daunting trend, with 57 of the last 60 winners unable to replicate their success the following year.

That said, history is made to be rewritten, and Scheffler is no stranger to doing just that. Just last year, he became the first player in the history of the prestigious Players Championship to successfully defend the title. He’s built differently.

Golf may be unpredictable, but Augusta National rewards consistency and elite performance in certain areas - and Scheffler checks all the boxes: elite ball-striking, a proven track record, and the course knowledge to navigate Augusta’s challenges.

When the final putt drops on Sunday, don’t be surprised if Scheffler is slipping into the Green Jacket once again.