What the future holds for Pakistan in the new year

The year ahead promises to bring a host of new political and economic challenges for Pakistan, notwithstanding claims from the country's military led regime, claiming to have set the course for increased stability in times to come.

But judging from a host of challenges in the past year, Pakistan's journey towards a new horizon seems anything but turbulence free.

A combination of man-made and humanitarian disasters in the past year have vividly exposed Pakistan's many weaknesses despite frequent claims from its leaders that the south Asian country's future outlook remains well intact.

As if the continued slide in Pakistan's fortunes by virtues of challenges such as a weak political system and widespread poverty was not enough of a setback, the earthquake in October exposed many of the country's weaknesses in the wake of widespread devastation.

Critics of the Pakistani regime continue to lament issues such as the failure of the government in reacting to the ordeal in good time.

Fortunately, the many predictions of mass deaths following this calamity as winter snow sets in, have so far proven to be way too exaggerated.

Post quake ordeal

But as hundreds of thousands of people in parts of the mountainous Kashmir and northern regions camp out, at best under the cover of tin sheets and at worst huddled together in tents night after night, the post earthquake ordeal is far from over.

It would be foolish for the most powerful members of the Pakistani establishment to assume that the quake and its fallout could still return to haunt them.

Come next spring when the snows melt, accounts of people having lived through a tough and challenging environment in the winter, are bound to make the rounds.

It is possible that such widespread accounts could turn themselves in to fresh fodder for critics of the Pakistani government as anxieties over the handling of the earthquake mount further.

The year ahead could also be momentous as it must mark the beginning of campaigns by politicians ahead of national elections which have to take place by October next year when the parliament completes its five year term.

Many in Pakistan believe, the current spate of recurring uncertainty is profound enough that General Pervez Musharraf, Pakistan's military president, would have to oversee elections during the coming year.

But for Pakistan's medium to long term future, what comes out of those elections may well be far more important than the mere fact of millions of constituents going to the polls.

More than three years since the last elections were held in 2002, Pakistan remains under the shadow of a military dominated political order-hardly the perfect prescription for a democratic dispensation.

Musharraf, backed by the United States, often argues that his actions are far more democratic than those of Pakistan's elected prime ministers who ruled the country during the decade of the 1990s and left behind still unresolved allegations of corruption and nepotism.

And yet, his position as the chief of the country's military as he simultaneously serves as president, only raises profound questions over the quality of Pakistan's democracy.

Growing economy

Last but not the least, there are indeed many questions that must be asked about the future of Pakistan's economy at a time when the government and indeed many independent economists predict a continued upturn following a recovery in the past three years.

Those years have seen Pakistan's economic growth rate recover to a record rate of more than eight per cent last year, liquid foreign currency reserves have edged up and other important indicators such as imports and exports remain robust.

But if the key to economic success lies in the quality of lives of ordinary people, Pakistan remains distant from its dream of overseeing a substantial turn around.

Almost a third of its population of more than 150 million lives below the poverty line raising questions over the sustainability of the recovery process.

The economic story indeed casts an overshadow on the future of the country, notwithstanding the claims from its leaders.

The bottom line is all too glaring to be ignored easily. Pakistan may have visibly turned the corner in some respects under Musharraf. But the presence of the "General" in itself depicts a fundamental dilemma.

As long as key political and democratic institutions remain weak and subservient to a military ruler, Pakistan's journey towards stability can not be taken for granted.

If 2005 saw examples of the tough challenges facing Pakistan, the year 2006 could witness the unravelling of the carefully carved governance order whose creation was overseen by Musharraf, all because Pakistan's journey towards stability has bypassed some fundamentally vital milestones.

Farhan Bokhari is a Pakistan-based commentator who writes on political and economic matters.