West must push for democracy in Pakistan

In John Negroponte, the United States may have sent a skilled and clever firefighter to douse the flames that threaten to engulf Pakistan.

But is this really the way out? Can the US diplomat pull Pakistan's charred chestnuts out of the fire? Or is it too late? Have the men in uniform closed the door on negotiations?

The international community is right to be concerned. Here is a nuclear nation veering from its pluralistic, democratic course, its ethnic divisions, religious and political polarisation deepening under the jackboot of shaky military rule, posing a threat to its already destabilised neighbour Kabul as well as the capitals of its distant western allies whose hand-wringing and threat of sanctions has fooled no one, least of all Islamabad's current powerbrokers.

Let's step back and retrace the steps that led to Musharraf's return to authoritarianism. No arguing that Washington's ham-handed meddling stoked anti-Americanism in the tribal areas. That its unrealistic effort to force Pakistan President General Pervez Musharraf into a civilian makeover is responsible for Musharraf's increasingly bizarre, Hyde-like deviation from his popular and "democratic" Jekyll persona.

Negroponte's arrival is a signal of Washington's rising alarm. With Pakistan's western provinces the staging ground for the war on terror in landlocked Afghanistan and Pakistan's border areas, and as in the Soviet era, with the Pakistan army manning the supply routes into the battleground against the resurgent Taliban-Al Qaida that has - as has long been alleged - found safe haven within Pakistan, Washington is in a bind.

When Negroponte meets the military brass, the nightmare scenario that will be driven home to him will feed into the west's biggest fears on the safety of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal.

He will be told any formulation that sees the military take the back seat in the political process has the potential for a prolonged civil war, if the current unrest, brutally suppressed by the authorities, turns into a full blown rebellion under self-serving politicians. Negroponte is well aware of the liberal Musharraf's strengths as head of the unifying, apolitical, areligious army in a divided Pakistan. But while the crackdown will ensure no visible dissent on the streets, Musharraf's unpopularity is no secret.

In election year? Backing an unpopular dictator? The administration's calculated leaks in the US press have ensured that Musharraf will have heard of the minus-Musharraf formula where the Bush administration is plumping for a variation of the tired theme - the first step of naming a new military chief who will fight "their" war to be followed by a replacement for Musharraf as president in the west's plans for a Pakistan beyond the generalissimo. As one Pakistan expert who requested anonymity given the climate of fear in his country said "even the much vaunted independence of the judiciary was to dislodge Musharraf who had not played fair with the Americans and could no longer be trusted.

What other explanation can there be for judges who had previously signed the PCO in '99 deciding they would challenge Musharraf's writ in 2007. An attack of conscience? Someone very powerful is backing them. There was no other way to remove Musharraf".

The emergency was the first indication Musharraf had bucked the US imposed gameplan that wanted to see him sharing power not with pliant political actors but with populist opposition leader Benazir Bhutto.

His caretaker administration, packed with cronies rather than independent technocrats to oversee a free and fair election, showed his hardening stance.

Bhutto's appeal in the west rests on her fluency with the western idiom as much as her knack of reaching out to energise or becalm the dispossessed across Pakistan's cities and villages. To a greater or lesser degree, former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, political stalwarts in Balochistan and the Frontier have it too.

As does iconic cricketer turned politician Imran Khan, arrested by "students" from the religious parties, long seen as the Trojan horse of the military.

It's a support that cuts across the country's multi- ethnic, sectarian and tribal identities and goes beyond simplistic ideologies and fanatical family following.

Despite the sustained attacks on Bhutto for being in cahoots with the military, she could - once she gains their trust - become the central figure around whom an anti-Musharraf opposition alliance coalesces. In these testing times, Negroponte must press Musharraf into lifting the curbs he has placed on his people, focus on fighting the good fight in the badlands, and essay a truly neutral role. Or step aside.

If not, the political churning set off by the confrontational course adopted by the military against civil society will throw up forces that could sweep even the semblance of democracy that exists in Pakistan out of the window. The US must be willing to take a chance that after the initial upheaval, Pakistan will find its democratic feet. The politicians must be allowed to have a say in a new caretaker administration, and arrive at a representative, if untidy democracy.

Pakistan has long paid the price for the west's myopic dependence on the military as the solution to all ills. This time, the meddling west must have the courage to allow Pakistanis to winnow the democratic chaff from the military weed.

Neena Gopal is an analyst on Asia.