US elections: The world is watching

The US presidential race is finally coming to a close. On Tuesday Americans will choose between the Republican Party candidate Arizona Senator John McCain and his rival from the Democratic Party Barack Obama, the black senator from Illinois.

It has already been an historic election regardless of its outcome. Eight years of the Bush presidency have left a bitter legacy in almost every corner of the globe.

Americans and the rest of the world are more than eager to see that era closed and done with. The day after the elections will be seen as offering a new beginning and ushering in much needed hope both domestically and internationally.

And although most polls show the 47-year-old Obama maintaining, and in many cases widening his lead nationwide, pundits still believe there is a chance for the septuagenarian McCain to pull a last minute surprise, especially if he makes an upset in the so-called swing states.

After the controversy of the 2000 elections, which initially went Al Gore's way, neither man will be ready to declare victory, or accept defeat, until the last delegate vote is tallied.

But while Americans will have to wait until the end of voting day for a winner to emerge, the rest of the world, according to a number of surveys, has already made its choice many months ago.

Last June a Pew Global Attitudes Project survey of 24 countries found that in all but three countries, Obama was the clear favourite.

In Europe the presumptive Democratic candidate was the overwhelming choice. Only in Jordan, Pakistan, Egypt and Lebanon were people inclined to predict a turn for the worse, according to the survey.

And a BBC World Service poll, the results of which were published last September, found that Obama was favoured by a four-to-one margin across the 22,500 people polled in 22 countries. Another poll, taken by the Reader's Digest magazine showed that in 16 out of 17 countries surveyed Obama was the clear winner.

Obama-mania

The only country to prefer a John McCain presidency was the United States, according to that survey.

Aside from the four Middle Eastern countries where people were indifferent to both candidates, Obamamania was assertive worldwide.

Another poll had showed that the black senator was also being viewed with skepticism by the majority of Israelis.

Of course these polls have no bearing on the outcome of the US presidential race. American politics is too complex, or too simple, to be influenced by world opinion.

Only a major national security emergency from the outside could schismatically tilt voters in the few remaining days.

But why do Middle Easterners differ in their perception of, and enthusiasm towards, an Obama presidency? Most of those responding to the Pew and BBC polls from this region believed an Obama victory will not affect US foreign policy.

In Turkey, respondents backed Obama even though they believed US policies will get worse under him.

The issues of Obama's ethnic and cultural background, his ties to Islam through his Muslim father and his moderate views on foreign policy, received more attention inside the US than outside.

Obama's colour, alleged ties to Islam and his "real" attitude towards Israel had failed to excite Arabs and Muslims as one would expect them to.

Obama's speech before the annual conference of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) last June in which he declared that Jerusalem must "remain the capital of Israel, and it must remain undivided" had riled Palestinians.

But few believed it was more than campaign talk to woo Jewish voters. Previous candidates, including George Bush, had in the past promised to move the US embassy to occupied Jerusalem and later found ways to renege on this promise. Why should Obama be any different?

When it came to supporting Israel, both McCain and Obama towed the same line. Only on Iraq, the more crucial issue for many Americans, did their policies differ.

Obama's statement that he would sit with enemy leaders, such Ahmadinejad of Iran, to negotiate outstanding differences, drew fire from his opponent. But Obama scored when he noted that failed policies in Iraq had taken America's eyes off Afghanistan, where the real challenge still lies.

Throughout the three presidential debates both men underlined their positions on foreign policy issues. At times they seemed pedantic and at others too similar to differentiate. McCain is politically conservative and he calls himself a maverick, and so one would assume that he would take a more confrontational approach towards Russia, North Korea and Venezuela. His administration would probably get more involved in the peace process but it is unlikely that it would force Israel to accept a settlement that is not to its likening.

White House

It is not presumptuous to assume that under his presidency the world would see a slight diversion from the Bush foreign policy. He promised victory in Iraq, something that is difficult to define at a time when the Iraqi government and elected deputies are protesting clauses in the joint security pact that the White House is trying to get through before the President Bush leaves office.

It is not likely that President McCain will take a lenient stance towards Iran's nuclear issue nor will he depart far from the main tenets of the Bush Doctrine. In many ways Obama is right when he says a McCain victory will mean a third term for Bush policies.

On the other hand, Obama has promised change, both internally and internationally. In Germany last summer he declared that he was a "citizen of the world" and his more modest approach to foreign challenges spells out a policy of moderation, cooperation and rationalism. He might surprise us on the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and he will certainly chart a different policy on Iraq.

But either man will have his hands full as he tries to deal with the dire economic situation that America now faces. For Americans and the rest of the world this is the priority now, and whoever clinches victory will have a mountain to climb from day one.

Osama Al Sharif is a veteran journalist and commentator based in Jordan.