Obama's Iraq gamble

Iraqis had all the right to declare June 30 a national holiday, as American troops finally withdrew from their cities, as much as they had the right to celebrate on April 9, 2003, when Saddam Hussain's regime was overthrown.

After more than six years of foreign military presence in their country, Iraqis finally gained control of their land and its problems. This comes amid a concerted campaign by insurgents to reverse the security achievements, which cast doubts on the ability of Iraqi security forces to handle the duty of maintaining stability.

The latest move is part of America's new strategy in Iraq aimed at convincing Baghdad that it is time to take matters into its own hands. This is a natural progression of the security pact signed between the US and Iraqi governments last year, and is part of US President Barack Obama's yoke, which he keeps holding to redeem what Democrats describe as "George W. Bush's sins".

The agreement acknowledged the pullout of the US troops from Iraq's cities, towns and villages by June 30, 2009. It envisions American troops leaving the country by December 31, 2011.

Now, American soldiers will only be able to enter cities if requested by the Iraqi government. Since January 1, this year, the US military has shut down more than 150 bases and outposts across Iraq.

Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Al Maliki has termed this partial withdrawal a "great victory", and he too has the right to celebrate the fact that he is now being seen as 'the liberator' of a war-torn country plagued with sectarian violence since 2003.

A great portion of Al Maliki's credibility rests on the fact that violence has declined in the past two years, that he has rebuilt the security forces, and that he has presided over the beginning of the end of the American presence. Not much of a surprise then that he never mentioned anything about the 130,000 American troops remaining in the country.

Yet, despite the jubilations, Iraq faces great challenges, thanks to a chaotic history riddled with violence and coups. This also poses a challenge to the US role in the region and the world in general.

First of all, it is essential to note that if Iraq is sucked into a civil war, it will be seen as a fundamental setback for the US and its long-established policy of military intervention.

The troop withdrawal, many say, has been deliberately planned by Obama to wipe out the policies of the George W. Bush administration. He has sought to take advantage of the rising US death toll in Iraq and the unwillingness of American parents to allow their sons and daughters to join the army.

On the other hand, the Iraqi government's sovereignty will be tested in the parliamentary elections scheduled early next year. It is hoped that the government will not attempt to suppress its political rivals in the intervening period. The Kurds in the north have already started to express their concern over Baghdad "leaning more towards dictatorship", bringing back bitter memories of genocide.

In addition, any potential instability would make Iraq vulnerable to Iranian influence, which could in return affect the entire region.

But the most jeopardising equation in the post-June 30 scenario could be the formation of another Yemen. As is the case in Yemen, Iraq is divided into different factions, has ineffective border guards, and strong tribal and sectarian loyalty, which sometimes overwhelms the notion of a unified nation.

As for the Americans, there is a possiblity of a renewed 'Vietnam syndrome' meaning that Washington could become reluctant to interfere in international affairs. So, no one would expect, from now on, to see an America flexing its military might to confront a rogue state's regional ambitions.

Is this the end Obama bargained for? Taking into consideration his 'shy condemnation' of the suppression of Iranians protesting in the streets of Tehran, he seems to be taking a guarded position.

America must bear in mind that many ordinary Iraqis believe that without the events of April 9, 2003, there would not be a national holiday on the June 30, 2009.

Rauf Baker is a Dubai-based journalist who specialises in Eastern European Affairs.