The Iranian saga has become a fixture in regional and international politics, with its multi-faceted, interconnected issues, challenges, trump cards and proxies. This has vexed regional and international players alike.
The disputed presidential elections in June sent ripples through the two competing camps — the reformists and the conservatives. As a result, the government has lost much of its legitimacy. Then came the suicide bombing last week in impoverished, majority-Sunni Sistan-Balochistan province, which has exposed the fault lines and ethnic strife within Iran's polity. This vulnerability could be exploited by its enemies to weaken Iran further and wreak havoc.
In the Middle East and beyond, Iran's fingerprints are ubiquitous as Tehran meddles in many countries' affairs. For evidence of this, look no further than Iran's nuclear programme and its ambitious attempt to project itself as the major player in the region, with fingers everywhere from western Afghanistan to Morocco, Iraq, Yemen, Lebanon and Gaza. Iran has emerged as the leading player in Iraqi affairs and is waiting out the Americans. Iran continues to be the dominant regional player in the Gulf, the most vital strategic region in the world, key to energy security and world stability.
Yemen's president and foreign minister have been outspoken about Iranian involvement in their affairs. Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh believes Tehran hopes to create "a Shiite belt on the Saudi border" by supporting, training and equipping the Al Houthi insurgency.
It was telling that Mohammad Al Ratayaan, a columnist for the leading Saudi newspaper Al Watan, appealed to his country's leadership to seize the opportunity to break the circle of Iranian domination of the Gulf region. It is no longer a crescent, as King Abdullah of Jordan labelled it a few years ago, saying: "The Persian fire has encircled us in the whole Gulf region from Iraq in the north to Yemen in the south. We have a thousand matches and we can wreak havoc on Iran, because it seems the Iranian leadership does not understand any other language."
This suggestion is a very bold and radical one, which will not have any takers among the regional players. Instead, they continue to pursue cordial relations with Iran to avoid provoking their menacing neighbour.
However, there may be an opportunity to exploit Iran's vulnerability as a result of the bickering on its domestic front among the restive and marginalised minorities, who account as a whole for close to 50 per cent of Iran's population, which is dominated by Persians. There are widening cracks in Iran's armour, which from a strategic perspective should be exploited to make its rulers look inwards and cease meddling in Arab affairs in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon — where its allies have prevented the formation of a Cabinet for the last four months — and Palestine.
In the meantime, Iran does not mind haggling and wheeling and dealing with the US over its nuclear programme, Iraq and Afghanistan. It is even rumoured that Iran is willing to talk with the Israelis (though it officially denies this) to allay their fears.
Strategic opportunity
Nevertheless, Iran's domestic political strife represents a strategic opportunity for its enemies. This could be exploited to weaken the country and cause it to sink even deeper into turmoil and instability.
Iran has for too long enjoyed a free ride and has become emboldened in recent years with its enemies departing the scene and no longer posing a severe threat to its very survival. The Taliban are gone, although they could always return. Meanwhile Saddam Hussain, who haunted the Iranian leadership for decades, is dead and buried, along with his regime. In a reversal of fortune, Iran now dominates swathes of Iraq strategically, politically and socially. The Bush administration, which threatened Iran with regime change, is also a thing of the past. Even Hillary Clinton who, while running for president, threatened Iran with annihilation if it dared to attack Israel, now speaks as US secretary of state only of "crippling sanctions". Iran has been in the driver's seat for too long, and it seems to enjoy the ride.
There has to be a concerted effort when it comes to dealing with Iran, especially when its strategy, tactics and grandiose projects trespass on our turf, meddle in our internal affairs, foment instability and insurgencies and inflame sectarian turmoil and tensions. This poses a security threat for individual countries, the region and the world. Iran has to understand that it cannot be in the driver's seat forever. If it is not careful, Iran could be given a taste of the medicine it has administered to others for so long.
Dr Abdullah Al Shayji is a professor of international relations and the Head of the American Studies Unit at Kuwait University.
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