Iran strikes while the iron is hot

Once again Iran is feeling reassured, buoyed by its successful chess moves that neutralised the Bush administration by forcing it to engage in talks with Tehran over Iraq. George W. Bush also left office without launching the much-touted military strikes against Iran.

Tehran continues unhindered the process of enriching uranium, which takes it closer to obtaining nuclear capability.

Now Iran is poised to reap more rewards as a result of the mess the Americans and their Nato allies in Afghanistan find themselves in. With the Taliban increasing their deadly attacks against Nato convoys passing through the Khyber Pass - a mountain route that links Pakistan and Afghanistan - and Kyrgyzstan shutting down the strategic US airbase in Manas and with Russia and the Central Asian republics of Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan only allowing non-military and humanitarian cargo and supplies, the US and its allies are scrambling to find other access routes to Afghanistan.

This has become even more urgent after President Barack Obama's decision to send more than 17,000 US troops to Afghanistan. It is increasingly clear that Iran is emerging as a plausible alternative route for the US and its allies.

True, it is unthinkable for the West with its harsh rhetoric and sanctions against Iran to ask the country for access to Afghanistan. But politics is the art of the possible.

In fact, a Nato commander recently declared that individual Nato countries could seek supply routes through Iran. Would the US, then, also seek access to Afghanistan through Iran as a part of a grand bargain?

Increasingly, it is clear that Iran, which celebrated the 30th anniversary of its revolution with much pride and by sending a satellite into orbit, does not seem to need the West as much as the West needs it. Iran appears to be in the driver's seat.

There is no doubt that the departure of Bush along with the Obama administration's conciliatory posture has emboldened Iran. This despite America's harsh rhetoric and the appointment of Dennis Ross as special adviser on the Middle East.

Iran knows that the US and the West in general need its help in Iraq, Afghanistan and other flash points. Such an atmosphere serves Iran's interests and allows it to flex its muscles and try to bully its weaker and more accommodating Gulf Arab neighbours.

The Economist pointed out Iran's menacing tactics: "Thirty years ago the Islamic revolution in Shiite-majority Iran inspired a wave of unrest among fellow Shiites of the opposite shore. Things then calmed down ... But with Iran lately sounding more aggressive under President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, small incidents are again triggering bigger eruptions."

Iran is employing the sectarian card, with all its dangerous repercussions. Clearly, Iran's drive for dominance and filling the gap created by the US wars against the Taliban and Saddam Hussain have transformed it into a regional superpower by default. This time it was Bahrain which was the target of Iran's bullying.

Natiq Ali Nouri, a close associate of Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, reminded Bahrain it was the "14th province" of Iran. Such hostile and belligerent tone was a repeat of the much-condemned Iranian verbal assaults which have been on the rise.

Similar comments were made last year by the media and information adviser to the supreme leader about Bahrain. This comes on top of Iran's showdown and defiance over its controversial nuclear programme, its role in Iraq, its lectures to Arab leaders about abandoning their Arab brethren in Gaza during the Israeli onslaught and Iran's repeated bellicose rhetoric about targeting the GCC states and shutting down the Strait of Hormuz in the event that it is attacked from GCC soil.

Iran has strained ties with most of the Arab states. Arab leaders before and during the Kuwait Economic Summit, which was hijacked by security and political crises related to Israel's war on Gaza, have expressed concerns about Iranian designs in the region. They've now come together and emerged from the abyss of the "Arab Cold War".

Saudi King Abdullah Bin Abdul Aziz was blunt when he stated at the Kuwait Summit in January, "Our [Arab] political disputes led to our divisions and fragmentations, and helped the Israeli enemy and those who want to split the Arab ranks to advance their regional designs, which undermines our solidarity, dignity and our aspirations." Although King Abdullah did not mention Iran by name, there is little doubt that it was Iran and its allies in the region he was referring to.

The lack of a balance of power between the Arab states and non-Arab countries in the region - Iran, Israel and Turkey - exacerbates the plight of the Arabs and their strategic weakness. Iran's success in addressing and championing Arab causes and resistance is helping it win the hearts and minds of the Arab masses, who look to their leaders with more despondency and despair.

That fact, along with the West's dependence on Iran's clout to help out with its wars and interests, are all contributing to Iran's confidence, boldness and ambitious designs.

That cannot but be an ominous and discouraging development for Arab and GCC states alike. This reality must force them to close ranks to face this new situation with more than just hopes and wishes.

Dr Abdullah Al Shayji is Professor of International Relations and the Head of the American Studies Unit, Kuwait University.