GCC needs a defence shield

Imagine this: oil tankers being destroyed, naval mines being planted across the Arab Gulf and rockets striking US bases in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states. It is one of the possible scenarios for the Armageddon battle.

That was just a play of fiction.

Seriously, the increasing tensions between the US and Iran are reaching alarming levels despite a bit of good news popping up once in a while about possible re-launch of talks with Iran on its nuclear ambitions.

Phyllis Bennis of the reputable Institute for Policy Studies acknowledged the danger when he once said in 2006 that such a war "a frighteningly real possibility".

It is hence a good time to note the very important question that GCC countries need to be asking themselves: Are we getting prepared?

Although Iran does not have nuclear weapons today, and although it never suggested it would build any for non-peaceful purposes, the US and particularly Israel are not at ease with the country's insistence to go on with its plans.

The stubborn positions of the Iranian and American sides leave little justification for optimism and hope. On the contrary, they hint to the need to act quickly and do something before it is too late.

Although the GCC may not be directly involved in the conflict, it is naïve to overlook the disastrous consequences such a war will have on the region and in fact, on the whole world.

The upcoming GCC summit to be held in December will be an opportunity for the region's leaders to discuss their options and what plans they have to prevent a war, and in case they couldn't, what plans do they have to minimise its damage.

I expect -and certainly hope - that the leaders would unilaterally agree on a common economic and defence policy to confront such a danger. But there will still be need to have a careful assessment of what the GCC can do with so little military power and experience.

Unlike Iran and other countries in the region such as Turkey and even Syria, Gulf countries lag behind in military might and are hence vulnerable to any outside retaliation and could hence not risk being involved in a confrontation with Iran or anyone else.

The 1990 Gulf War should have been a serious signal that having a common and strong army for the region is a necessity particularly after they discovered they had to ask for help from external forces - allies - to liberate Kuwait from Iraqi invasion.

Since then, little progress has been made to have a unified army or a common defence policy to avoid a repetition of the past. As if 17 years have not passed, the GCC states seem vulnerable today as much as they were vulnerable in 1990.

Although several GCC countries have achieved impressive levels of GDP growth due mainly due to increase in oil prices, they seemed to overlook the risks of something going wrong and an attack that could have them as a target.

This risk is today very evident in that Iran would strike at any country that has US bases or troops. This applies to many GCC states.

In times like this, when regional instability is under threat, regional alliances should be set up to have joint objectives to protect the region.

Mutual interests

As globalisation had demonstrated, not having alliances to protect mutual interests is a recipe for disaster and a risky strategy that has many negative consequences.

Although wars should always be avoided, there are times when there are no choices, the 1990 war being a clear example. It is thus important to rethink the defence policies in the region and study the options available.

In my view, this is the best time for the GCC to initiate, with other countries in the region and the world, a defence alliance. A project similar to Nato would be an investment for the future in terms of confidence and protection.

What I mean with having such an alliance is more into having defence mechanisms, underground shelters and other protective measures other than building weaponry arsenal.

Staying without a shield for so long has been a mistake. But a bigger mistake is to continue ignoring this issue.

I know that this is easier said than done, but at least it could be food for thought and a reminder that with much economic activity in the region, there needs to be some guarantees for the protection of the people.

However, one should never forget that the most important efforts that need to be made now is to prevent such a crisis from happening. That's the first and foremost priority. Everything else is just damage control and minimisation.

Walid Al Saqaf is an information communications technology and media consultant.