Weather alert: Is a cold wave hitting UAE this week? Here's what forecasters say

Dubai: Residents across the UAE are in for a significant shift in weather conditions as a powerful cold spell sweeps through the Emirates. According to the latest NCM (National Centre of Meteorology) update, a surface low-pressure system backed by an upper-level trough and a deep cold air mass is set to grip the country from Wednesday, March 4, through Thursday, March 5, 2026. The impact, however, is expected to linger well beyond those dates, with meteorologists warning of cold conditions stretching into the weekend.

Muhammed Sajjad KP, popularly known as the 'UAE Weatherman' on social media, has also shared a brief explanation of why Global Forecast System (GFS) temperature anomaly models show a stark cold anomaly pushing into the Arabian Peninsula, pulling well-below-normal air temperatures across the region.

This week and next week, northwesterly airflow is expected to dominate the upper atmosphere, reinforcing the cold pattern and keeping daytime highs noticeably lower than seasonal averages. The combination of the surface low, the upper trough, and the cold air mass creates a potent mix of cloudy skies, rainfall, and gusty winds, the kind of setup that can bring a huge change to conditions overnight.

Widespread cloud cover will build across the UAE, with rainfall expected to break out over scattered areas throughout the Wednesday–Thursday window. While much of the country may see light to moderate showers, residents in the northern and eastern regions should prepare for heavier bursts at times.

The rain is forecast to be most active during the nighttime and early morning hours particularly from Thursday through Friday nights with showers persisting in places until Saturday. The midnight to early morning window is identified as the peak period for activity, so those commuting during pre-dawn hours should take extra care on the roads.

This cold wave is one of the more defined cold spells to affect the UAE this season. Temperatures are expected to fall noticeably as northwesterly winds take hold, replacing the relatively warmer southeasterly flow that precedes the system. Nights and early mornings on Thursday and Friday are forecast to be particularly chilly, making this one of the colder stretches experienced so far. Another cold wave is also anticipated to follow in the days ahead, suggesting the colder pattern is not a one-off event but part of a broader atmospheric trend affecting the country through the coming week.

Winds will initially blow from the southeast before shifting to a northwesterly direction as the system matures. The winds are expected to be moderate to fresh in strength, and at times may be strong enough to lift dust and sand across open desert areas, reducing visibility on highways and in exposed locations. Motorists are advised to remain vigilant, particularly in inland areas where blowing dust can develop rapidly. The wind shift itself is a key signal of the cold air's arrival once the northwesterly kicks in, temperatures will feel even sharper.

Mariners and beach-goers should exercise caution over the coming days. Seas in the Arabian Gulf are forecast to gradually turn rough from Tuesday night onward, with conditions remaining turbulent through Thursday. In the Oman Sea, wave heights will range from slight to moderate initially, with rough spells possible at times. Those planning any maritime activities, water sports, or coastal outings are strongly advised to monitor updated marine forecasts and avoid the water if conditions deteriorate.

The cold wave's influence will not be limited to the March 4 to 5 core period. Conditions are expected to remain unsettled through the weekend, with cold temperatures, residual shower activity, and continued northwesterly winds shaping the days ahead. Families planning outdoor weekend activities should keep a close watch on updated forecasts, as the timing and intensity of any remaining showers could shift. Residents are advised to stay informed, drive cautiously, and keep warm as cold weather returns to the Emirates.