The end game

The shocking assassination of Nadarajah Raviraj of the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) by unknown gunmen - the second TNA member to die in this manner - is expected to invite the retaliatory wrath of their proxy, the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam. It's a sharp escalation of violence that many see as the ultimate end game.

Since the election of the hardliner Mahinda Rajapakse as head of the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLPF) - he marks his first year as President of the embattled island nation this month - the country has seen Rajapakse's government drop the pretence that it will play by the rules. Rajapakse speaks for the Sinhalese majority seeking to refashion the equitable compact to their advantage.

The first casualty is undeniably the 2002 ceasefire, in tatters, after landmark talks with the separatists by the previous Ranil Wickremesinghe government wrought a hard-won, three-year-long hiatus in fighting. The genesis of the conflagration is not hard to find - old grievances, perceived slights and ingrained suspicions that dates back to the turn of the century. Hostilities are now at an all-time high. The Tigers are losing control of much of the East, largely due to the adoption by the Sri Lankan military of the hit-and-run attacks perfected by the renegade Tiger, Colonel Karuna, who rebelled when his eastern boys were pressed in for service as cannon fodder by Tiger leader Vellupillai Prabhakaran.

The legacy

However for the first time, Colombo has deliberately taken the war behind enemy lines, strafing targets, ostensibly civilian, in punishing air strikes. This, it emerges, is because the Sri Lankan air force has without much fanfare leaned on Pakistan's expertise in training its pilots and upgrading ammunition. The mystifying attacks on Trincomalee and Galle ports by the Sea Tigers are the LTTE's futile attempt at destroying arms consignments from Islamabad and Israel. On the other hand, the Sri Lankan forces have staged periodic battles at sea to prevent the Tigers from smuggling in arms on fishing vessels from Cambodia, Nepal and Afghanistan via Thailand and India.

Rajapakse's plans to diminish the LTTE's military might are a holdover from the time the country was run by its more famous son, 'SW' or Solomon Bandaranaike. Along with presidents Junius 'JR' Jayawardene and Ranasinghe Premadasa (who was assassinated by the LTTE), these men are credited with the discriminatory policies favouring the Sinhalese majority that engendered the sense of alienation among ethnic Tamils. The Machiavellian 'JR' also paid to attempts by India, the only foreign force that shared ethnic links with the Tamils, to influence the country's discourse when he cleverly outmanoeuvred a naïve Indian prime minister Rajiv Gandhi.

In 1987, the Indian army was brought in to keep the peace but ended up battling the very Tigers they had armed and trained. After the assassination of Rajiv in 1991 by the Tigers for his so-called betrayal, the gloves have stayed on - with India urging military restraint, a return to dialogue and offering its own federal model as a blueprint for constitutional correction even as the Tigers were banned worldwide as a terror group. Though keeping India at bay was a masterstroke, Delhi's unwillingness to provide inside knowledge has ensured Jaffna's defences cannot be breached. Of course, the crack in the ordinarily monolithic Tiger wall in the east has worked to Rajapakse's advantage, but he cannot press home the advantage.

All he can do is reclaim some of the honour that Sinhalese forces lost when they were beaten back in a doomed offensive, "Operation Riviresa", carried out by the Kumaratunga government. Thousands of Sri Lankan soldiers died. It made Colombo realise the futility of warring against an enemy, far more committed to battle, far better armed and equipped.

Despite their differences, Kumaratunga and Wickremesinghe thereafter were largely agreed that it would be more sensible to wage peace rather than war. Kumaratunga only backtracked in the face of pressure from her hardline allies, the Janata Vimukta Perumana and the Buddhist clergy. In fact, Rajapakse's not-so-surprising turnaround is merely a progression of the line Kumaratunga would have in all likelihood taken if she had retained power as head of the party - rearming the military and attempting to annihilate the enemy. The LTTE did the same during the ceasefire.

Rajapakse's obvious disdain for the Norwegian peace interlocutors may have to do with the real grievance of the Sinhalese against their former colonial masters - the British, who hand-picked Tamils for key government posts where they excelled.

The Tamils' ethnic roots have always been called into question. While migration from India from the third century onwards is believed to have led to Sinhalese and Tamil settlements, the Sinhalese resented the ingress of Tamil migrants who came to work in the tea plantations in the 19th century. When British rule ended in 1948, the hostility between the two communities simmered until SW's infamous move to impose Sinhala as the official language. Thousands of educated Tamils who ran the government lost their jobs overnight. The final straw was when Buddhism was made state religion.

On such fertile ground, the Tamil Tigers led by a student leader Vellupillai Prabhakaran found it easy to sow the seeds of the LTTE; the enemy within that has since eaten away at the country's entrails. With a descent into all-out war made inevitable, the Tigers may have made another tactical blunder, as ill-concieved as their assassination of Rajiv. Their boycott of last year's election denied them a say in the parliamentary process. Their belief in their own invincibility is a hubris the Tamils have fed on since the Black July pogrom of 1983. Forged in war, they believe in a battle to the death.

However, as Rajapakse tries to corner the thrashing Tiger, the Tamils must ask their leaders why they seem so afraid of peace.

- Neena Gopal is an analyst on Asia.

A snapshot

Sri Lanka (previously known as Ceylon until its name was changed in 1972) is a South Asian island nation with a population of about 20 million. The Sinhalese, Sri Lankan Moors, Indian Tamils and Sri Lankan Tamils are its principal ethnic groups. The country has the following religions: Buddhism, Islam, Hinduism and Christianity, besides indigenous religions. Sinhala is the official and national language while Tamil is also considered a national language. English is commonly used in government.

Sri Lanka is a strategic naval link between West Asia and South East Asia. It is a major producer and exporter of tea, coffee, rubber and coconut. The island nation is a popular tourist destination, thanks to the beauty of its tropical forests, beaches and landscape. Although the country secured independence from Britain in 1948, Sri Lanka has been torn by a bloody civil war between the Sinhalese-dominated government and Tamil separatists who are demanding an independent Tamil state. A ceasefire was signed in 2002 but it has since been undermined by violence.

The Emerald Isle: Mapping war and peace

1948: Ceylon gains full independence

1956: Solomon Bandaranaike elected on a wave of Sinhalese nationalism. Sinhala made sole official language

1959: Bandaranaike assassinated by Buddhist monk. Succeeded by widow Sirimavo, who continues nationalisation programme

1972: Ceylon changes its name to Sri Lanka and Buddhism given primacy as the country's religion, further antagonising the Tamil minority

1976: Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) formed as tensions rise in Tamil-dominated areas of north and east

1983: 13 soldiers killed in LTTE ambush, sparking anti-Tamil riots leading to the deaths of an estimated several hundred Tamils. Conflict breaks out in the northern part of the island between the army and the LTTE. Civil war intensifies

1985: First attempt at peace talks with LTTE fails

1987: Government forces push LTTE back into Jaffna. Government signs accords, creating new councils for Tamil areas in the north and the east and reaches agreement with India on deployment of Indian peace-keeping force

1990: Indian troops leave after getting bogged down, fighting in the north. Violence between the Sri Lankan army and the separatists escalates

1991: LTTE implicated in assassination of Indian premier Rajiv Gandhi

1993: President Premadasa killed in LTTE bomb attack

1994: President Kumaratunga comes to power pledging to end war. Peace talks opened with LTTE

1995: Peace talks collapse and LTTE resumes bombing campaign. Government launches major offensive, driving separatists out of Jaffna

2001: February Britain labels LTTE "terrorists" under a new anti-terrorism law designed to halt funding and support for UK-based militant groups

2002: February Government and Tamil Tiger rebels sign a permanent ceasefire agreement, paving the way for talks to end the long-running conflict. The peace initiative is sponsored by Norway

2002: September Government lifts ban on Tamil Tigers - a rebel demand. First round of talks begins in Thailand. Rebels drop demand for separate state

2002: December At peace talks in Norway, the government and rebels agree to share power. Under the deal, minority Tamils would have autonomy in the Tamil-speaking north and east

2005: November Mahinda Rajapakse, prime minister at the time, wins presidential elections. Most Tamils in areas controlled by the Tamil Tigers do not vote

2006: April onwards Marked escalation in violence. The military launches air strikes on Tamil Tiger targets after a series of attacks on military targets. Hundreds of people are killed and the UN says tens of thousands have fled their homes

2006: October Peace talks resume in Geneva but fail over the rebels' demand that the government reopen a key highway to Tamil-dominated Jaffna peninsula

- Information courtesy: www.bbc.com