UAE fuel price prediction: Petrol, diesel costs to drop in November after this month’s hike?

Dubai: With the UAE set to announce November fuel prices soon, motorists are hoping for relief after October’s increase.

Falling global oil prices and easing geopolitical tensions could pave the way for a drop in pump prices — though much depends on how global markets move in the coming days.

October rise

In October, UAE residents saw prices edge up by 7-8 fils for petrol: Super 98 petrol rose to Dh2.77 a litre, Special 95 to Dh2.66, E-Plus 91 to Dh2.58, while diesel inched up to Dh2.71 (from Dh2.66 in September).

Since the country deregulated fuel prices in 2015, monthly adjustments have followed global oil trends — rising when crude costs more and easing when it falls.

Global swings

Brent crude recently traded near $66 a barrel, climbing 5.4% in a single session after new U.S. sanctions on major Russian producers shook the market.

The move sparked the biggest weekly gain since June. Kuwait’s oil minister also hinted that OPEC could increase output if demand rises, warning that oil prices could face upward pressure.

Earlier this month, traders had been expecting lower prices. Signs of a global oil surplus had narrowed the gap between current and future Brent contracts — often a hint that prices could fall. But the new sanctions quickly flipped that outlook.

What changed?

With supply now expected to tighten, the market moved into what traders call “backwardation” — meaning oil available today became more expensive than oil for future delivery. In plain terms, that’s a sign of short-term price strength.

“Before the sanctions, markets were pointing to lower prices ahead,” said Arne Lohmann Rasmussen of Global Risk Management. “After the sanctions, expectations shifted to higher prices.” Analysts at Capital Economics added that the move could even push the market into a deficit next year if enforcement remains strict.

Motorist impact

Multiple analysts are flagging now that fuel prices are unlikely to drop sharply in the immediate future. If current trends hold, motorists could see steady or slightly higher prices before any possible cooling later on.

As one analyst put it, “We’ll probably start to see motorists feel the impact at the pump within a few days — it depends on how long the sanctions effect lasts.”

Oil prices have stayed moderate over the past few years, with U.S. crude recently dipping below $57 a barrel — its lowest since early 2021. But if supply stays tight, UAE fuel prices may remain firm heading into November, with only limited room for cuts.