GCC forecast to register trade surplus of $557b

Abu Dhabi: The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states are forecast to post a fiscal surplus of $177.2 billion in 2012, up from $153 billion in 2011. the National Bank of Abu Dhabi (NBAD) said in its Economic Outlook for 2012 on Tuesday. The economic outlook includes the GCC, Egypt and Jordan.

“The fiscal surplus is estimated at 12 per cent of GCC GDP (gross domestic product) in 2012. GCC fiscal surplus is forecast at $124 billion in 2013 (8.2 per cent of GDP). Two GCC member states are expected to account for the bulk of the GCC surplus. These are Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. Bahrain is expected to register a deficit. Egypt and Jordan are expected to continue to post sizeable budget deficits in the course of the next two years,” said NBAD.

The report said the GCC is forecast to register a trade surplus of $557 billion in 2012.

“Value of exports is forecast to reach $1 trillion for the first time and imports are forecast at a record $449 billion,” it added.

NBAD said high oil prices will allow GCC to accumulate international assets and retain their usual role of being capital exporters.

“Egypt and Jordan will remain beneficiaries of a small portion of these flows with these, nevertheless, being significant for the recipient economies. Moreover, investment flows will resume as confidence returns,” it added.