Look: Electric vehicle sales skyrocket in India and China, what happens next

FROM ICE TO ELECTRIC CARS: The first known working internal combustion engine (ICE) — called the Pyréolophore — was built in 1807 by French inventors Claude Niépce and Nicéphore Niépce. It’s been 216 years, and the journey from horses to ICE to electric vehicles (EVs) has seen major changes. Another change draws near, what Stanford futurist Tony Seba calls a major “disruption” due to the convergence of technologies, notably computing, AI and energy storage. Photo shows Tesla vehicles produced by Giga Shanghai factory.

TIMES THEY ARE A-CHANGIN': On August 26, 2023, the International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that the demand for EVs is “booming” — with sales on track to jump 35 per cent this year (2023) to 14 million units. In 2019, only 2.5 per cent of cars sold worldwide were electric. In 2023, they’re set to reach 18 per cent. This has far-reaching implications for a number of industries and climate, according to the agency. But that’s just half of the story — the hardware part. The software, or AI, that runs the hardware is quite another. https://iea.li/3sdSsjO

ASIAN EVs: Chairman Wang Chuanfu of BYD stands proudly before an image of BYD's e6 electric car during a press conference in 2010 at Los Angeles City Hall. The purpose of the conference was to announce that the Chinese renewable energy and automotive company, BYD, would establish its US headquarters in Los Angeles, California, with the potential to generate hundreds of new job opportunities. File photo was taken on April 30, 2010.

400% SPIKE IN BYD PROFITS: BYD, which stands for Build Your Dreams, is renowned for its production of batteries, solar panels, and electric-hybrid vehicles and enjoys backing from the billionaire Warren Buffett. BYD has seen setbacks, but it is unstoppable in its ambition in leading the global EV drive. In March 2023, BYD reported that profit surged by 400 per cen1t (2022 vs 2021), as the EV market hots up in China and after BYD posted record sales. - AFP

TIPPING POINT IN INDIA — 210% GROWTH: In the subcontinent, a total of 1,366,780 EVs were sold during the last 12-month period from August 2022 to July 2023. Sales figures for July 2022 started at 80,877 units and steadily increased month over month, reaching a peak of 158,300 units in May 2023, according to EVreporter. EV sales hit the million-sales milestone for the first time in CY2022 with a total of 1,024,739 units, representing a 210 per cent year-on-year growth. Photo shows Tata's Tiago EV during its launch in Mumbai, India.

INDIA POSTS 67% EV SALES GROWTH IN H1 2023: From January to June 2023, there were 434,914 EV units sold in India, up 67 per cent from the same period in 2022 (260,316 units). Electric two- and three-wheelers, and the more affordable segments compared to electric cars, goods carriers or buses, understandably have been the main growth drivers of the sales in first-half of 2023. Electric two-wheelers, with 434,914 units, account for 60 per cent of the total sales, three-wheelers (246,270 units) have a 34 per cent share of the EV pie. A total of 38,359 electric cars and SUVs were also sold, which gives them a 5.31 per cent share, according to Autocar Professional.

CHALLENGES: The primary barrier to widespread EV adoption lies in the high cost of batteries, which typically make up around 50 percent of the total vehicle cost. In 2010, a lithium-ion battery commanded a price tag of approximately $450 per kilowatt-hour. To illustrate, consider the Tesla Roadster, a luxury vehicle priced at more than $100,000, equipped with a 53-kilowatt-hour lithium-ion battery.

BATTERY PRICE DECLINE: Tesla Motors' CEO, Elon Musk, has asserted then that battery costs are gradually declining at a rate of 8 percent per year. From almost $1,200/kWh in 2010, battery prices fell to $137/kWh in 2020. This decline brought EVs into the mainstream. Two-wheeler and three-wheelers EVs have also seen rapid uptake.

“ELON’S LAW”: Elon Musk's prediction, often referred to as "Elon's Law," is beginning to seem rather conservative. An example of this is evident in China, where BYD Auto recently introduced three Dolphin EV models (featuring a 60-kilowatt-hour batteries), at a price range of 116,800 – 136,800 RMB ($16,700 – $19,600). This translates to a battery cost of approximately $278 to $326 per kilowatt-hour, a considerable leap forward in terms of affordability.

AUTOMAKERS WRITING A NEW BOOK: Major automotive companies have all made announcements regarding their intentions to develop new electric car models. We have heard various players, both established giants like GM, Ford, and VW, and newcomers like Lucid and Rivian, venturing into the EV market with varying degrees of success. Given the substantial investments and research conducted by both the industry and academia, along with the emergence of promising electricity storage startup companies, it becomes clear that the trajectory of cost reduction is poised for further advancements. Photo shows the MG Cyberster two-seater EV on the opening day of the Munich Motor Show in Germany.

OUTLIER BECOMES TREND-SETTER: Tesla was initially seen as an outlier — it had no money and its technology was unproven. GM did build its own electric vehicle for three years, from 1996 to 1999 (powered by lead-acid and nickel metal hydride batteries) — 7 years before Tesla was founded. GM scrubbed EV-1 in a controversial move. Today, GM, Ford and Stellantis (Chrysler) are all playing catch-up with Tesla. Before 2003, the name Tesla was associated invariably with a bygone inventor Nikola Tesla (inventor best known for his contributions to the design of modern alternating-current system that powers our homes and buildings), or a rock group.

20 MILLION UNITS PER YEAR: It took 5 years from launch before Tesla released the Roadster, its first EV. Today, Tesla has its sights on selling 20 million cars per year by 2030. Asian EV makers — notably the Chinese and Vietnamese — are also ramping up their EV production.

VIETNAMESE EV MAKER IN AMERICA: On March 2, 2023 Vietnamese electric vehicle maker VinFast delivered its first 45 cars to customers in California, its first sales outside Vietnam. On August 15, the EV startup became public through a blank-check merger deal, also known as a merger with a special purpose acquisition company, or SPAC, merger. The startup is majority owned by the Vietnamese conglomerate Vingroup. While the company is not profitable yet, the company was worth $85 billion after its listing, compared with Ford at $48 billion and GM at $46 billion.

MAINSTREAM: EVs have come a long way, after years of being thought of as a n better than golf carts. For years, their viability and safety were questioned? Well not anymore. In the first half of 2023, the Tesla Model Y has become the world's best-selling car. It’s an industry transformation that’s been driven by software — Tesla cars using Autopilot are over nine times less likely to get into an accident than human drivers in other manufacturers' vehicles.

ADOPTION SKYROCKETS: The EV adoption rate has skyrocketed, surging from 1 per cent of global new car sales in 2017 to an impressive 13 per cent in 2022, a 13-fold increase in just five years. Industry watchers anticipate that EVs will surpass 50 per cent of new car sales between 2028 and 2030.

PRICE DROPS, CUT-THROAT COMPETITION: As competition stiffens and more consumers consider EVs, Tesla has embarked on a strategic shift that aligns with its core mission: "Accelerating the World's Transition to Sustainable Energy.” Recent headlines have highlighted Tesla's significant price reductions across its vehicle lineup, starting with cuts of up to 20 per cent at the beginning of the year.

20% PRICE CUT ON TOP OF 20% CUT: These price cuts continued, with substantial decreases in the prices of its larger luxury models, the S and X, by another 20 per cent%. Critics argued that this was evidence of a waning interest in EVs, potentially jeopardising Tesla's profitability and reflecting a desperate bid to stay relevant. Tesla's quarterly earnings reports tell a different story. While profitability did take a hit, it wasn’t all that bad. Tesla’s ability to maintain profitability was bolstered by reduced costs post-pandemic supply chain disruptions, increased production scale from newly established factories in Austin and Berlin, and the enduring high demand for its lucrative Model Y.

EV ACCELERATION: Every EV maker, including newcomer Rivian, has set their eyes on a long-term strategy is to accelerate the transition to sustainable energy. Legacy automakers tend to cut production during such times, focusing on maximising profits per unit sold, instead of volume. Tesla, on the other hand, has chosen to lower prices aggressively. This helps keep production at full speed while continuing to grow. In essence, Tesla is pricing its products to sell more in the coming years rather than pursuing maximum profit today. Thus, Tesla can “flood” the market with its products, now evident in the Model Y's status as the world's best-selling car.

COMPUTING POWER: A pair of hooligans have been captured on camera, set on "sentry" mode, attempting to damage a Tesla Model 3. Tesla’s 8-camera system and onboard computer are enough to make their EVs safer than human drivers, paving the way for regulators to approve Level 4 and 5 autonomy. Tesla's cars are already capable of many autonomous driving functions with the current Full Self-Driving Beta software, albeit at Level 2, where the driver must remain vigilant. Crucially, all Tesla vehicles collect extensive driving data, regardless of whether the self-driving system is active or not.

AUTOPILOT: Autopilot is now up to 9 times safer than human drivers. So imagine a scene where data-driven AI behind smart EVs helps ensures safe, comfortable, and private transportation, where moving from A to B becomes incredibly affordable due to manufacturing efficiencies and the absence of drivers, and ICE engines become museum pieces. It appear’s Tesla's profits from such a future dwarf any short-term gains from limited production and profit-maximizing campaigns.