Surge in violence could delay US drawdown plan

Washington: A raft of sensational attacks in Iraq is raising new questions about US President Barack Obama's plans to draw down troops in Iraq so he can send more to Afghanistan.

On Friday, two female suicide bombers blew themselves up near the gates of a Shiite shrine in Baghdad, killing 60 people. The attack followed two suicide bombs on Thursday that killed more than 80 people.

The wave of violence in recent weeks, coming as US troops have begun preparing for withdrawal, threatens to bring Iraq back to the front burner, after months of increased security coupled with Obama's focus on Afghanistan had pushed it back.

US forces are preparing to withdraw from Iraq over the next year and a half, with troops pulling out of the cities as early as June.

Meanwhile, the Pentagon is preparing to send more than 21,000 additional troops to Afghanistan through this summer and fall.

While the Iraq withdrawal and the Afghanistan surge won't necessarily occur simultaneously, much of the deployment to Afghanistan is predicated on the draw down plan for Iraq. If Al Qaida were to re-emerge and pose a substantive challenge to Iraqi and US forces, Obama might have to reassess his thinking. But some analysts also say there is no indication that the improved security in Iraq is being reversed.

Violence uptick

"The enemy [insurgents] can't return to its former posture, nor is the situation likely to deteriorate quickly," says Kim Kagan, president of the Institute for the Study of War, an analysis group in Washington.

"But we need to remember that our forces are there for a reason," she adds.

The uptick in violence has not significantly affected US troops, yet. The number of American military personnel killed in Iraq has stayed under 20 per month since last October, according to the website icasualties.org.

The 140,000-plus US forces currently in Iraq are supposed to leave by 2011, pending any new agreements with the government.

"Iraq, now, is more of a Lebanon-like model," says Fawaz Gerges, a professor of Middle Eastern studies at Sarah Lawrence College in Bronxville, New York. He says it is a sectarian-based society still lacking in a unified national government, with a 50-50 chance of returning to a deeper conflict.

"Iraq remains a highly precarious society and, yes, violence has dropped," he says. "But all the elements are there for an escalation to a low-intensity conflict."