Kerala Nilambur election: Massive win for Congress - and V.D. Satheesan

Kerala’s quarter-final elections are decided, with Aryadan Shoukath setting up a landslide win. A win for the Congress candidate was more or less assured once his lead swelled past the 6,000 vote mark, the sort of lead more or less impossible to overcome in an assembly seat election.

It has to be said that the Congress has won handsomely, and for V.D Satheesan, the current Leader of the Opposition, it is also a chance to start dreaming about becoming the next Chief Minister of Kerala sometime by May 2026.

Because this election was not just about Aryadan Shoukath – even though he was not on the ballot, it was Satheesan who stood to gain or lose the most if the Congress failed. If Shoukath lost, Satheesan would have faced the brunt of the criticism for not bringing in P.V. Anvar into the UDF fold. That Satheesan’s decision to hold firm and not cave in to Anvar’s demands will make this win even sweeter.

So, should Satheesan be Congress’ next CM candidate in Kerala? Based on the outcome today, there cannot be anyone else. The way he managed equations with the Muslim League – allowing for a unified messaging to Nilambur voters – is another credit to him.

Truth be said, Satheesan has not put a foot wrong in recent weeks. Sure, he did have a role in forcing the Congress state unit to be recast, and which meant that influential leader K. Sudhakaran no longer could continue as the president of the party in Kerala.

A new team is very much cut in Satheesan’s mould, and he also injected a new – and rare – discipline into hoe Congress approached the by-election.

Is P.V. Anvar too a winner?

Let’s spare a thought for P.V. Anvar, whose resignation as Nilambur MLA set up this untimely by-election in the first place. He was never going to be a winner, but Anvar has done more than enough to decide who should represent the constituency in the Kerala Assembly. (Until the May 2026 state-wide elections are called.)

In this regard, Anvar did deal a blow to the Pinarayi Vijayan led LDF government. A defeat will not be easy for the CPM to dismiss – and not after they brought in the most likely candidate with a chance to succeed, M. Swaraj.

Will the LDF government heed any lessons from a defeat? Can Pinarayi Vijayan be convinced about the need for a reshuffling of his Cabinet? Because there is a need for fresh blood, with some of the current ministers have not been convincing in handling their portfolios.

None of which will be a bother for Satheesan – June 23 and Nilambur’s by-election result will be major milestones in his rise to the next logical position – that of being Kerala’s Chief Minister.